Market Technical View is a blog that mostly concerns the technical analysis of different financial instruments like indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs and currencies.

All the posts are structured in 3 main chapters that can be found in Content, in the upper right-hand corner of the blog.

Market perspective. The technical approach consists of chart patterns and important support/resistance zones. The purpose of this section is to give directions of the price on short and medium term (a few days up to a few months).

Trading setups. The analysis posted here will provide trading scenarios based on different technical tools.

Romanian Market. This is a section dedicated to Romanian stocks and indices.

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Friday, January 6, 2012

Apple short term chart 2012.01.06

Apple is trading around the $417,00 level, in a rising trend since the 25th of November.

As mentioned in the previous analysis ( ), there is a strong resistance between the $422.86 and $426.50 levels (where the mid October highs are). Furthermore, there is also the T2 line getting closer and this will act as a resistance (it is parallel with T1 line).

The plotted price action on the h4 chart is not a must but it is a relevant scenario to watch and action should take place when other signals will add up. The first support is at $408.30, which was tested several times in the past.

S&P 500 direction for the next period

The H1 chart of S&P Index is showing the price action of the last couple of months as a final c wave of Y of 2.

The main focus here will be the channel between the T1 and T2 lines, as is proved to be respected up to this moment. Keeping in mind that we are in a final wave up (part of a larger correction) the investors should be looking for exhaustion signs here.

Of course, we are hearing only good news from US and no news for Europe (like everything is OK now) and this is usually typical for an ending period of rising prices.

There are no selling signs for now but precaution is vital for the next days/weeks.

Analiza Tehnica BET-FI 2012.01.06

Indicele BET-FI isi mentine posibilitatea de crestere pe termen scurt si mediu, iar zonele de suport precedente (incepand cu minimele din 4 octombrie) sunt solide pana in acest moment.

Zona tinta, data inca din luna noiembrie, este intre nivelele 21.450 si 22.820, unde se regasesc unele minime/maxime anterioare dar si nivelele de retragere Fibonacci de 50% si 61.8%, corespunzatoare scaderii din martie pana in octombrie 2011.

Analiza Tehnica SIF Oltenia (SIF5) 2012.01.06

Scenariul de crestere pentru SIF Oltenia se mentine valid chiar si dupa scaderea de 2,8% de ieri.

Zona de suport 0,9680-0,9940 RON se dovedeste solida iar atat timp cat preturile nici nu se apropie de aceasta zona, nu exista motive de vanzare. Tinta pentru semnalul de cumparare dat in 9 decembrie ( ) se mentine in zona 1,2400-1,3000 RON.

Suportul pentru ziua de azi este dat de nivelul 1,0376 RON.

Analiza Tehnica Transgaz Medias (TGN) 2012.01.06

Pretul actiunilor Transgaz a atins prima tinta de la nivelul 230,00 RON, data in 15 decembrie ( ) si, pentru siguranta, s-a dat un semnal de vanzare, cu un profit de 8,5%.

Scenariul de crestere trasat pe grafic ramane valid si, pentru confirmare va trebui asteptata strapungerea rezistentei 230,00 RON si, eventual, stabilirea ei ca si suport. Tinta urmatoare este data de zona 246,65 RON iar suportul principal este in zona 216,00 RON. 

UUP touching resistance

The us dollar etf  has just touched resistance, while the euro is at september 2010 levels. With the dollar beeing the leader of almost everything it would be a good advice to wait and see here. A breakout or a failure here will send a quality message to various assets across the intermarket.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

EURUSD vs. DAX correlation

There is an older post ( ) regarding the correlation between some equity indexes and the EURUSD cross.

This chart confirms that there could be periods of decorrelation between DAX Index and EUR-USD cross.   This can turn to “normal” at any time, making though the DAX to fall and the EURUSD to fall slower or to go sideways. There is also the possibility for the EURO to rally in order to “reach” the DAX Index.

However, the first scenario is more probable as the main indexes (SPX, DJIA, DAX…) are oscillating now in (or close to) a strong resistance zone. 

Apple has its own way!

This is a quick update of the Apple daily chart of December 15th (find analysis here). As expected, the long term trend line acted as a support and buyers took control in $380 area.

We are looking now for some signs in the resistance zone, set by previous highs in the $420 area. As a protection measure, those who bought in the $380 zone can sell part of their position.

The first sign of a larger decline will be in place only if the trend line will be breached. 

S&P 500 Technical Analysis 2012.01.05

The S&P Index had a good start in 2012 but the bulls should take care as the price is currently moving inside a broad resistance zone (1,265-1,294).

This does not exclude the possibility of a break above the $1,294 but precaution is advised, as this resistance zone is strong both from Elliott Wave count theory (the October-present rise is developing as a complex correction) and previous lows and highs of 2011.     

GLD Technical Analysis 2012.01.05

The SPDR Gold Shares price seems to react at the T1 trend line zone, as this surely represented a good support for the bulls.

Even though the long term chart shows a rising trend there are some clues that are warning the bulls of a possible break below the t1 trend line. One of the trend definition is creating two consecutive highs and lows in the same direction.  In this case, we are looking to lower highs and lower lows created in the last four months.

Analiza Tehnica Erste Group Bank (EBS) 2012.01.05

In sedinta de ieri s-a testat nivelul de rezistenta 60,22 RON, definitoriu pentru evolutia viitoare a pretului, dupa cum reiese si din analiza precedenta  ( ).

Ramane de urmarit un scenariu de cumparare in cazul in care prima rezistenta va fi depasita. O eventual aretestare cu success (ca si suport) va oferi o oportunitate buna de cumparare.

Analiza tehnica Fondul Proprietatea (FP) 2012.01.05

Pentru emitentul Fondul Proprietatea se mentine perspectiva din analizele precedente ( ) asupra unei posibile reversii, fara semnal de cumparare deocamdata.

Din punct de vedere tehnic, eficienta suportului de la nivelul 0,4150 RON reflecta interesul cumparatorilor in acea zona. Cu toate acestea, nu va exista un semnal de cumparare decat in momentul in care zona de rezistenta 0,4230-0,4320 RON  va deveni suport pentru pret.

Scenariul ideal pentru cumparare ar fi strapungerea nivelului 0,4320 RON, urmata de o retestare cu success a acestui nivel ca si suport. In acest caz, prima tina/rezistenta va fi data de zona 0,4520-0,4600 RON, care s-a dovedit foarte importanta in a doua jumatate a anului 2011.

Analiza Tehnica OMV Petrom (SNP) 2012.01.05

Pretul actiunilor OMV Petrom s-a mentinut in ultimele saptamani ale anului 2011 in zona minimelor iar nivelul 0,2700 RON reprezinta suportul principal.

Ocilatia pretului in ultimele 5 luni in zona  0,2700 - 0,3400 RON poate reprezenta crearea unei baze de la care sa porneasca o crestere. In alte cuvinte, suportul 0,2700 RON s-a dovedit puternic , ca urmare a interesului cumparatorilor in aceasta zona.

Pe termen scurt, zona 0,2950-0,3000 RON este foarte importanta iar strategia este de a urmari o eventuala strapungere a zonei de rezistenta pentru a cumpara.  

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2012.01.04

Crude Oil (WTI) is testing the mid November highs, in the $103.00 area, as the instability in Iran is keeping up the tensions.

Technically speaking, we missed a good opportunity in the final days of 2011 when a break-retest-continuation pattern has formed.  The decisive fact was the importance of T1 trend line on the short term, which acted as resistance and support afterwards.

As a whole, the 4h chart shows a correction between the 17th of November and 18th of December and this can lead to breaking late May and mid November highs. 

Analiza Tehnica Bursa de Valori Bucuresti (BVB) 2012.01.04

 Semnalul de cumparare pentru actiunile BVB, dat in data de 17 noiembrie ( ) se mentine valid iar nivelul 28.06 RON reprezinta suportul cel mai apropiat.

Din punct de vedere tehnic exista confirmare pentru o crestere in continuare din partea volumelor si a stabilirii zonei 28,00 Ron ca si suport pentru pret.

Tinta clasica este data de zona 32,80 - 34,20 RON insa prima rezistenta este stabilita la nivelul 30,00 RON. 

Analiza Tehnica SIF Moldova (SIF2) 2012.01.04

SIF Moldova a evoluat in ultimele zile ale anului in zona de rezistenta 1,0700 - 1,1500 RON iar din acest punct de vedere, raportul risc/recompensa a unei investitii nu poate fi satisfacator.

Pe graficele analizate, bulinele verzi reprezinta semnale de cumparare iar cele rosii reprezinta semnalele de vanzare. In cazul SIF Moldova s-au semnalat 2 cumparari (si respectiv, 2 vanzari) in perioada octombrie - decembrie a anlului 2011.

Dilema in acest moment este ca nu putem sti daca cresterea inceputa in 4 octombrie (de la nivelul 0,7100 RON) reprezinta o corectie pentru trendul descendent din perioada 31 martie - 04 octombrie sau este un trend crescator care va duce, in final, la depasirea maximelor de anul trecut (1,4200 RON). 

Analiza Tehnica Transgaz Medias (TGN) 2012.01.04

Semnalul de cumparare dat pentru compania Transgaz, in data de 5 decembrie ( ramane valid si, mai mult decat atat, inchiderea ultimei sedinte a anului 2012 a dat un randament de 5,3%.

Nivelul de rezistenta 216,00 RON s-a transformat in suport pentru urmatoarea perioada iar zona 229,00 RON ramane rezistenta intermediara (semnalata inca din momentul semnalului de cumparare – 5 decembrie).

Tinta principala pentru crestere este data de zona 246,65 RON insa, in functie de evolutia pretului in zona 229,00 RON (sau chiar si mai jos) se poate forma un semnal de vanzare.