Market Technical View is a blog that mostly concerns the technical analysis of different financial instruments like indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs and currencies.

All the posts are structured in 3 main chapters that can be found in Content, in the upper right-hand corner of the blog.

Market perspective. The technical approach consists of chart patterns and important support/resistance zones. The purpose of this section is to give directions of the price on short and medium term (a few days up to a few months).

Trading setups. The analysis posted here will provide trading scenarios based on different technical tools.

Romanian Market. This is a section dedicated to Romanian stocks and indices.

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Friday, January 27, 2012

IBM shares price in clear up trend

IBM share price is in a rising trend since December 2008, evolving in a rising channel between T1 and T2 lines.

The first support zone is between $186.60 and 188.25 levels, followed by $177.20 support. Until these supports will be broken there is no sign of reversal.
The closest target/resistance is set by T2 trend line, somewhere in the $200.00 area.


DJIA Technical Analysis 2012.01.27

DJI Index traded yesterday in the resistance area set by May and July 2011 highs (12,752-12,880) and formed a spinning top candle, preventing though the bulls of a possible reversal.

The main aspect to watch now in case of a decline is the trend line T1 and an eventual break below it will set the market for further decline.


BRD Technical Analysis 2012.01.27

BRD shares reached the first resistance at 11.00 RON in yesterday’s session, after a consolidation period above the 10.50 RON support level.

The buy signal gave a couple of weeks ago (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-brd-20120112.html) is still active and, as expected, the retest of T1 was produced.

The classic target is set in the 12.00 RON and both technical and fundamental analysis are in favor of a bullish move.  


Banca Transilvania (TLV) Tehnical Analysis 2012.01.27

The buy signal for TLV shares on 17th of January (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-banca-transilvania-tlv_17.html ) has now a profit of about 5.1% and reached the 0.9590 RON target.

The good support zone in the 0.8710-0.9000 RON and the rising potential of TLV shares could bring prices towards the 1.0500 RON target in a matter of weeks. Therefore, the buy signal gave a couple of weeks ago is still active.  


OMV Petrom (SNP) Technical Analysis 2012.01.27

OMV Petrom share price reached in the last session the target zone set in Monday analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-omv-petrom-snp-20120123.html).
The price can encounter a bear pressure at this level but, due to the strong sentiment and rising potential, the upper limit of the resistance zone (0.3400 RON) is now in focus.


SIF Muntenia (SIF4) Technical Analysis 2012.01.27

SIF Muntenia (SIF4) share price reached the TARGET zone set in one of the previous analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-sif-muntenia-sif4.html ).

The current resistance zone, between the 0.6150 and 0.6400 RON levels could be a reason for some profit taking and therefore, a sell signal (at least part of positions) is given.

The rising trend could go on in the next weeks but, for confirmation, a break of current resistance should occur. 


Thursday, January 26, 2012

Alcoa share price seems cheap for how the market looks like

Alcoa share price rose in the past few sessions and broke the T1 trend line, signaling though a bullish move towards the $11.20-$11.60 target area.

The previous analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/alcoa-is-on-watch-list-20120116.html) signaled a good possibility for the shares to appreciate and now, technically speaking, the scenario is confirmed.

The bigger picture shows that the market could reach as high as $14.00/share in a matter of months. In order to get confirmation for this scenario the share price should break the first main resistance. 


Bank Of America is on its way to $8.40 target

Bank of America (BAC) gained more than 10% since the break out of the falling wedge on the 10th of January, confirming the bullish expectancies of the previous analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/bank-of-america-broke-important-trend.html).

The short term (days to weeks) outlook has the same target zone in focus ($8.40-$8.90) but the $7.40 level is a resistance due to the previous key levels. The most important support on the short term is in the $6.40 area.

The medium term perspective (up to one year) could get prices towards the 62% retracement of 2011 decline, in the $11.00 area. A confirmation for this move will be given in case TARGET 1 will be breached and settled as support. 


Banca Transilvania (TLV) Tehnical Analysis 2012.01.26

The Transilvania Bank share price reacted to the 0.9000 RON support due to buyers actions, confirming though the bullish scenario.

The buy opportunity signaled last Tuesday (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-banca-transilvania-tlv_17.html ) is still active and investors could buy even today in the same price area.

The first target is set at the 0.9590 Ron level, given by previous key levels. As shown in the chart, the rising possibility could bring prices towards the 1.0000 RON area. This will be confirmed in case of breaking up the first resistance and transforming it into a support.  


OMV Petrom (SNP) Technical Analysis 2012.01.26

The buy signal gave on Monday (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-omv-petrom-snp-20120123.html) above the support zone of 0.2950-0.3000 RON is still active and the good evolution of yesterday got the price closer to the target.

The target zone is between the 0.3240 and 0.3400 RON levels and today’s most probable target is the lower border, at 0.3240 RON. Look for an eventual reversal pattern in the resistance/target zone.   


SIF Banat-Crisana (SIF1) Technical Analysis 2012.01.26

SIF Banat-Crisana closed at 0.9100 Ron/share, keeping its evolution in the symmetrical triangle started on th 21st of November.

On the medium term we are looking at a consolidation pattern (triangle) that follows a bullish move (October-November) and which usually qualifies as a continuation pattern. As long as the price will move within this pattern, the bullish outlook still remains valid. Therefore, the buy signal is still active (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-sif-banat-crisana-sif1.html).

The first support is in the 0.9000 RON area, while the resistance is a zone: 0.9380-0.9500 RON. An eventual break above this area will confirm the bullish scenario. The first target zone is between the 1.0070 and 1.0770 RON levels and the second target is in the 1.3000 area (2011 april highs). 


Wednesday, January 25, 2012

SIF Banat-Crisana (SIF1) Technical Analysis 2012.01.25

SIF1 shares looks really good on medium term (a few months) since it is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle after a rising period, started in early October.

The main support to watch now is the 0,9000-0,9100 area and the bullish confirmation will come when the price will break above the upper triangle border (red dotted line).

The first target is in place at 1.0260 RON level but the classic target of the triangle is in the 1,2200 RON area, where the April 2011 highs were made.


Fondul Proprietatea (FP) Technical Analysis 2012.01.25

Fondul Proprietatea closed yesterday slightly below the opening price, after the shares traded as high as 0.4769 Ron during the day.

The most important area to watch now is the 0,4520-0,4600 RON, which was a previous resistance. The break above this area, at the beginning of this week, was produced on high volumes, creating though a healthy break.

An eventual decline towards the support could set the market for a good buy opportunity in case this support will hold.    


SIF Muntenia (SIF4) Technical Analysis 2012.01.25

SIF Muntenia (SIF4) shares are recovering after a lagging period in which other financial shares outperformed the benchmark (BET-FI index).

Although the price moved in the target zone in yesterday’s session, the closing price settled below the first resistance of 0.6150 RON. The daily support is at the 0,5900 RON level and a close below it will give a selling signal.

The great volumes of this year could give the buyers the strength to break the resistance zone (as happened to SIF Moldova) therefore, the buying signal gave early this year is still in place (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-sif-muntenia-sif4.html). 


SIF Oltenia (SIF5) Technical Analysis 2012.01.25

SIF Oltenia (SIF5) share price is getting closer and closer to the resistance zone of 1,2400-1,3000 RON and the close of yesterday is in the previous highs area (November and December highs).

Due to the mixed evolution in the financial sector in the past sessions, a sell signal was given in order to mark the profit from the December buy signal at 1,0000 RON area (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2011/12/analiza-tehnica-sif-oltenia-sif5_09.html) . The high volume of yesterday could also mean profit taking of some investors.

The first clear support is now in the 1,1200 RON area and the closest resistance is at 1,2200 RON, which represents the 50% retracement of the 2011 decline. 


Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2012.01.24

The WTI Crude Oil Future price retested yesterday the T1 trend line that represents a good support for this year.

The longer trend, started in early October 2011, is bullish, with higher highs and higher lows and it could resume if the T1 support will hold.

The main support zone is $97.17-$98.46 area, represented by 50% and 62% retracement of the previous upswing and also by the influence zone of T1.

The first target on the long side is set by previous local highs, in the $103.90 area.


SIF Transilvania (SIF3) Technical Analysis 2012.01.24

SIF3 lost its momentum in the past few sessions as it reached the 0.6000 Ron resistance level last week.

The bearish engulfing created last week in the resistance zone signals at least a temporary reversal that could travel easily to the first support of 0.5720 RON, where also is the T1 trend line.


Fondul Proprietatea (FP) Technical Analysis 2012.01.24

FP shares price rose consistently in the past couple of sessions, managing to break above the mid-term resistance zone of 0,4520-0,4600 RON.

The market optimism is clearly reflected in price and, although the momentum could slow down, the investors should look for support levels in order to buy. This way, they will have a good risk/reward ratio.

The next resistance/target zone is set in between the  0,4800 and 0,4960 RON levels. 


BRD Technical Analysis 2012.01.24

The bullish scenario on BRD is still active and we are, the most probable, in the retest phase of T1 line of the break-retest-continuation pattern expected since the beginning of the year (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-brd-20120109.html ).
The support formed by T1 line and 10.47 RON level shows at least temporary interest on buyers behalf and could end the pullback of the break above T1 line from early January.





Monday, January 23, 2012

Apple keeps its bearish outlook. 2012.01.23

Apple price action is keeping the bearish outlook of the previous analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/apple-signs-of-reversal-20120112.html) as the bulls failed again to clearly break the resistance zone.

The target in the $405.00-$409.00 is still in place and the Friday session added more bearishness to the chart. 


Google confirmed the bearish scenario. 2012.01.23

Google price gapped down at the end of last week, concluding a break-retest-continuation scenario that was followed since 10th of January (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/google-at-support-scenario-in-case-of.html) .

The closest support is now at $579.00 level, representing the 50% retracement of the October-January up swing. The main target is in the $560.00 area, as plotted in the previous analysis. 


Erste Group Bank (EBS) Technical Analysis 2012.01.23

Erste Group Bank broke above the key level of 60.22 RON last week and the scenario posted in the previous analysis is in place (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-erste-group-bank-ebs.html   )

A buy signal occurred here targeting the broad area between the 89.23 and 114.95 levels. There could be a retest of 60.22 RON level, which is a support now.


Analiza Tehnica Fondul Proprietatea (FP) 2012.01.23

Scenariul de crestere urmarit pentru Fondul  Proprietatea s-a produs saptamana trecuta iar cresterea de vineri a dus la atingerea primei zone de rezistenta (0,4520-0,4600 RON).

Cea mai importanta zona de suport este acum delimitata de nivelele 0,4230-0,4320 RON insa o crestere pe termen scurt si mediu va duce, cel mai probabil, la interventia cumparatorilor.

A doua tinta este data de zone 0,4520-0,4600 RON insa pentru ca aceasta sa se activeze va fi nevoie de strapungerea rezistentei actuale.


Analiza Tehnica OMV Petrom (SNP) 2012.01.23

Pretul actiunilor OMV Petrom a strapuns saptamana trecuta zona de rezistenta 0,2950-0,3000 RON, mentinandu-se pentru doua zile deasupra aceastei zone.

Stabilirea zonei 0,2950-0,3000 RON ca si suport declanseanza un semnal de cumparare cu prima tinta in zona 0,3240-0,3400 RON. Volumul relativ mare din sedinta de joi (strapungerea nivelului 0,3000 RON) vine ca si confirmare iar in zolele urmatoare nu este exclusa o eventuala retestare a zonei de suport.