Market Technical View is a blog that mostly concerns the technical analysis of different financial instruments like indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs and currencies.

All the posts are structured in 3 main chapters that can be found in Content, in the upper right-hand corner of the blog.

Market perspective. The technical approach consists of chart patterns and important support/resistance zones. The purpose of this section is to give directions of the price on short and medium term (a few days up to a few months).

Trading setups. The analysis posted here will provide trading scenarios based on different technical tools.

Romanian Market. This is a section dedicated to Romanian stocks and indices.

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Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Short break!

I'll be missing in the next few days so there will be no postings until TUESDAY, oct.4

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Technical Analysis 2011.09.28

Last trading hour on NYSE might give a signal

The positive sentiment of the last few days pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher, breaking up the 11,267 resistance.

However, the last hour of spot trading said a lot about the strength of the bulls. The clear domination of sellers in last hour is a key factor in determining the weakness of the current up move. This same market personality can be found before the 20th September peak.

The closest resistance is set now in the 11,375 area and an eventual failure below it (it doesn’t have to get too close to it) will set the market for a down move in the next days. The first target in case of a reversal is set in the 10,950 area and it is followed by the 10,550 area as a strong support. 

On the 4 hour chart the T1 line has a clear resistance function now (it was a strong support before) and this could stop the rally before it gets to the 11,534 horizontal resistance. 

The price action in the month of September was choppy and large stop losses are needed in case of trading the swings.

One interesting (and important) fact is that we are at the end of a quarter and this could lead to bullish support until the end of the month (same as the end of week). Therefore, this area could be a reversal one but we could see new highs or sideways move in the next 3 sessions.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2011.09.27

Crude Oil near a strong resistance area

Crude Oil made a local low yesterday in the $77.10 area rebounding price towards the $83.20-83.50 resistance area.

The action price in the immediate vicinity of the mentioned resistance will be the key point for the next couple of days direction: If bears will enter the market considering this is another good opportunity to sell (which it is) the targets for the bearish reversal will be set at $79.76 and $77.24.

The price retraced around 50% from the 21 – 26 September down move and this could turn out to be another reversal in the main trend direction. However, if this rally is the beginning of a longer up swing we should get a confirmation provided by the resistance zone turning into a tested support. Even if this will be the correct scenario, we are expecting a down move that will be part of a three wave (zig-zag) up move.

On the 4 hour chart the bigger picture reveals the strength of the $83.30 level. This level has been tested for several times in the near past and could still be very important for the investors.

Moreover, the stochastic oscillator is in the overbought area and, having in mind that the overall trend is bearish, this signals another selling opportunity.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Technical Analysis 2011.09.27

Is this rally in its final stage?

As we thought on Friday (though without sufficient evidence at that moment), the 10,600 area support proved to be strong enough to reverse the price course for a few days.

On the futures market the price traveled beyond the 61,2% Fibonacci retracement but the key resistance level is at 11,267 (a former important low). If buyers fail to keep their bid steady we will be clearly heading for a bearish reversal, targeting the previous lows of 23rd September in the 10,550 area. A closer support is set in the 10,850 area.

The Elliott wave count positions the market in the second wave (wave 2) of a 5 wave downward structure. If this count is correct, this up move will not cross over the 11,550 level and, furthermore, the previous lows (10,550) should be breached.  

CONCLUSION: keep an eye on the price action around the 11,267 level!