Market Technical View is a blog that mostly concerns the technical analysis of different financial instruments like indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs and currencies.

All the posts are structured in 3 main chapters that can be found in Content, in the upper right-hand corner of the blog.

Market perspective. The technical approach consists of chart patterns and important support/resistance zones. The purpose of this section is to give directions of the price on short and medium term (a few days up to a few months).

Trading setups. The analysis posted here will provide trading scenarios based on different technical tools.

Romanian Market. This is a section dedicated to Romanian stocks and indices.

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Friday, January 13, 2012

Analiza tehnica BET-FI 2012.01.13

Indicele BET-FI a incheiat sedinta de ieri in crestere cu 1,1%, departandu-se astfel de primul suport din zona 18.630-19.040 si demonstrand capacitatea de crestere in continuare.

Tinta pentru crestere se mentine in zona de rezistenta 21.450-22.820, data de nivele importante din trecut dar si de nivele de retragere Fibonacci corespunzatoare scaderii din 2011. Prima rezistenta pentru ziua de azi este la nivelul 20.700.


Thursday, January 12, 2012

Apple signs of reversal 2012.01.12

On the 6th of January analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/apple-short-term-chart-20120106.html ) was mentioned the $422.00-426.00 resistance zone and the scenario to follow.

Today, the chart still stands and the scenario was confirmed by the price action. Most of yesterday’s session traded below lower resistance border (see chart – the last 3 candles) and this proves the (at least temporary) bearish pressure.

The first target is set in the support zone, between the $405.00 and $409.00 levels. 


Analiza Tehnica BRD 2012.01.12

Graficul zilnic al companiei BRD indica o formatiune de tip pana, inceputa in august, care apare de multe ori la finalul unei miscari descendente (in cazul acesta, miscarea inceputa in 25 martie 2011).

Conform analizelor precedente (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-brd-20120109.html), asteparile sunt de crestere iar pentru un semnal de cumparare se va urmari un scenariu de tip spargere-retestare-continuare (a liniei de trend T1).

Sedinta de ieri a dus la strapungerea liniei de trend T1 iar cumpararea este recomandata in zona 10,50-11,00 RON. Retestarea din cadrul scenariului poate interveni in timpul unei sedinte de tranzactionare.


Analiza Tehnica SIF Banat Crisana (SIF1) 2012.01.12

SIF Banat-Crisana a dat un semnal de cumparare odata cu inchiderea puternica a sedintei de ieri, in zona 0,9240 RON.

Privind evolutia pretului in ansamblu, in ultimele luni, evlutia de crestere este plauzibila atat timp cat suporturile 0,8380 RON si 0,8790 RON sustin pretul iar volumele au fost relative mici in perioada de consolidare inceputa in 21 noiembrie.

Prima tinta pentru acest semnal de cumparare este data de zona maximelor anterioare (1,0300 RON) insa in cazul in care consolidarea reprezinta doar mijlocul unei perioade de crestere (foarte posibil) atunci tinta este in zona 1,1700 RON.


Analiza Tehnica SIF Muntenia (SIF4) 2012.01.12

Directia actiunilor SIF Muntenia (SIF4) se mentine ascendenta pe termen mediu (incepanad din 4 octombrie 2011) iar sansele de crestere in continuare raman viabile.

Se da un semnal de cumparare dup ace sedinta de ieri a inchis la nivelul 0,5730 RON. Suportul 0,5490 RON s-a dovedit puternic in ultimele saptamani iar volumele din acest an sunt relativ mari.

Prima tinta este data de zona de rezistenta activa, intre nivelele 0,6150 si 0,6400 RON.


Analiza Tehnica SIF Moldova (SIF2) 2012.01.12

Pretul actiunilor SIF Moldova (SIF2) a crescut uimitor in sedinta de ieri, incheind la +6,4% fata de ziua anterioara.

Desi o cumparare pare atractiva in aceste momente, existenta rezistentelor multiple si a scenariului Elliott Waves indica o miscare finala de crestere pe termen mediu (aici se face referire la cresterea inceputa in 4 octombrie).

Zona principal de suport s-a mutat intre nivelele 1,0300 si 1,0700 RON in timp ce zona principala de rezistenta se afla intre 1,2070 si 1,2450 RON, zona data de minime si maxime locale istorice. 


Analiza Tehnica OMV Petrom (SNP) 2012.01.12

Vanzatorii au reactionat la nivelul rezistentei 0,2950-0,3000 RON si au dus pretul la nivele mai scazute in ultimele doua zile.

Scenariul de cumparare ramane valid si este conditionat de strapungerea zonei de rezistenta, dupa cum s-a mentionat si in analiza precedenta (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-omv-petrom-snp-20120109.html). Pana atunci insa piata ramane dominate de vanzatori.

Suportul principal pentru urmatoarea perioada de timp este dat de minimele lunilor octombrie si noiembrie, in zona 0,2700 RON.


Wednesday, January 11, 2012

S&P 500 Technical Analysis 2012.01.11

S&P returned now to $1,282 support which was previously the main short term resistance.

Remember that the price is currently evolving in a final wave that will eventually lead to the end of wave 2. For a bigger picture of the market check yesterday’s analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/where-is-s-500-heading-now.html).

The main focus will remain today on the $1,282 level: a break-down of the support will signal bearishness for the next days and bulls support will probably lead to new highs. 



Bank Of America broke an important trend line

Bank of America stock prices recovered well in the past days and the buyers managed to push prices above the T1 trend line that acted as resistance for the price in the last few months.

The price action formed a wedge pattern that usually calls a temporary bottom. The main target for Bank of America share price is set in the $8.38-8.87 area, given by previous local highs and 38.2% retracement of the 2011 decline.

An ideal bullish scenario will be the successful retest of T1 trend line before the up-swing will resume (as shown in the chart below).


Analiza Tehnica Banca Transilvania (TLV) 2012.01.11

Pretul actiunilor Bancii Transilvania a revenit in zona cheie 0,8710-0,9000 RON care a fost, pe rand, suport si rezistenta.

Trendul pe termen mediu si lung este descendent, cu minime si maxime in scadere, iar din acest punct de vedere nu este recomandata cumpararea.


Totusi, in cazul in care nivelul 0,9000 RON va fi strapuns si testat mai apoi ca si suport, exista sanse bune ca investitorii sa devina mai interesati de actiunile Bancii Transilvania.

Pentru a allege un moment bun de cumparare, trebuie urmarit un scenariu de tip spargere-retestare-continuare  coroborat cu nivelele cheie trasate pe grafic.


Analiza Tehnica BET-FI 2012.01.11

Indicele BET-FI a inchis sedinta de ieri in crestere usoara, mentinandu-se deasupra zonei de suport 18.630-19.040.

Scenariul de crestere se mentine activ, iar tinta clasica este data de zona 21.450-22.820.


SMH breaking out


























Semiconductor ETF is showing strenght lately. Broke out of downtrend, it has a resistance at 35.50 area which i suspect will be challenged soon.

xlf higher lows


























The XLF looks interesting lately. I believe this is the trigger we need for the broad market to go up. If even financials go up, then 1400 on S&P seems likely.

Indices breaking out


























DJT showing the world who`s the boss. Breakout , retest then real breakout. Textbook case. We have very similar patterns in DJI, SPX and the russell follows.
Looks like we are in for some bullish times.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Where is S&P 500 heading now?

The S&P Index break through the $1,282 resistance, after the T1 trend line acted as a support, as expected in the previous analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/s-500-direction-for-next-period.html).

The daily chart (left) shows the bigger picture, where the ascending move, started in early October, is, the most probable, a corrective wave 2, formed of a double zig-zag.

Late October highs are acting now as resistance in the $1,295 area and, on the hourly chart (right) T2 and $1,320 level are the most significant targets. If bulls will fail to reach these targets than the end of wave 2 will probably end.


Google at support. Scenario in case of a break below $618.00

The daily chart of Google shows the selloff in the last few sessions, especially yesterday, when the stocks dropped by 2.4%.

Technically speaking, Google price formed an island reversal, the pattern that usually calls for a top. The first resistance is in the $646.00 area, where the gaps are located.

Yesterday’s close of Google was close to the T1 trend line that is acting as support. The $618.00 level  is also a support due to July and November highs. Therefore, a stronger sell signal would be in place if the price would break below $618.00 level.

TAKE CARE though, because, in many cases, a break below an important support is quickly followed by a sharp pullback, before the down move will resume (as shown in the chart). 


Apple signs of reversal 2012.01.10

The h4 chart of Apple shows bear resistance in the $422-426 area, as expected (see previous analysis http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/apple-dirrection-for-future-days.html).

There are several clues which attract bears attention and which proved to be respected in yesterday’s session:
1.       Mid Octomber highs
2.       T2 trend line – acts as resistance
3.       The three types of gaps usually found in an upswing

Bottom line is that at least a pullback is expected and if bulls will fail today to break through resistance zone that the chances to see lower prices are increasing. The strongest and closest support appears to be in the $405-409 zone. 


Analiza Tehnica SIF Oltenia (SIF5) 2012.01.10

SIF Oltenia isi mentine activ semnalul de cumparare dat in 9 decembrie (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2011/12/analiza-tehnica-sif-oltenia-sif5_09.html ) iar primul semnal de alarma va fi dat in momentul scaderii pretului sub nivelul de suport 1,0370 RON.

Pe termen mediu (ultimele 9 luni) se evidentiaza o line de trend importanta, T1, care reprezinta o rezistenta pentru pret. Actiunea pretului din ultimele 3 luni (incepand din octombrie) arata o crestere iar scenariul in 3 valuri pare ca este acum la mijloc iar din acest punct de vedere exista sansa unui nou val de crestere.   


Analiza Tehnica SIF Moldova (SIF2) 2012.01.10

Pretul emitentului SIF Moldova evolueaza de 2 saptamani in interioarul zonei de rezistenta 1,0700-1,1500 RON si se afla la sfarsitul miscarii din 3 valuri, conform scenariului din luna noiembrie.

In concluzie exista mai multe indicia care indica un maxim local in aceasta zona.

Motive pentru a NU cumpara:
1. Zona de rezistenta puternica intre 1.0700 si 1,1500 RON
2. Ultimul val de crestere din corectia A-B-C inceputa in octombrie 4 (conform teoriei Elliott)
3. Volume in scadere – divergenta fata de cresterea pretului din ultimele 3 saptamani


Monday, January 9, 2012

Apple dirrection for future days. 2012.01.09

Just a quick update for AAPL chart, provided last Friday (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/apple-short-term-chart-20120106.html ).

If this is not a real reversal, there are very good chances to see at least a pullback. Keep a close look at it. I will repost this when a selling signal appears.


S&P 500 Technical Analysis 2012.01.09

S&P Index seems to be holding the support offered by T1 trend line, which is part of the rising channel, along with the T2 trend line.

The first important resistance is at 1,282 as it reversed the price 4 times in this year.  The most important thing for the future days is that the price is moving within the final stage of a complex correction, of which wave c (and Y at the same time) is the last sub-wave.

Moreover, one of the previous charts of S&P 500 (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/s-500-technical-analysis-20120105.html) shows the bigger picture where we can clearly see that 1,265-1,294 is a resistance zone. 


Analiza Curs Franc elvetian - Euro (EUR-CHF) 2012.01.09

Cursul valutar EUR-CHF arata o consolidare in zona mediei mobile de 200 de zile, intre nivelele 1,2130 si 1,2420, nivele trasate in urma cu 3 luni.

Acest curs este influentat in mare masura de deciziile bancilor centrale Elvetiene si Europene insa analiza tehnica ofera nivele relevante de pret care s-au dovedit puncte cheie in evolutia pretului.

Evolutia laterala din ultimele luni, impreuna cu ocilatia in jurul mediei mobile de 200 de zile indica o posibila crestere in continuare, insa primul pas (confirmare) va fi depasirea nivelului 1,2420 si stabilirea lui ca si suport. 


Analiza Tehnica BRD 2012.01.09

Analiza tehnica a emitentului BRD arata o linie de rezistenta T1 in zona careia vanzatorii s-au dovedit mai puternici, reusind sa mentina pretul sub ea.

Suportul activ este dat de zona 10,46-10,50 RON iar o eventuala strapungere a liniei T1 va spori sansele unei cresteri. O alta rezistenta importanta pentru pretul actiunilor BRD este nivelul 11,00 RON iar in cazul unei cresteri, scenariul trasat pe grafic este de urmarit.

Volumele relativ mari in tranzactionarea BRD de la sfarsitul anului, in special in zilele in care s-a incercat strapungerea nivelului 11,00 RON si a liniei T1, sugereaza interesul pentru cumparare. Singura problema este situatia sectorului bancar (lipsit de incredere) atat in Romanaia cat si pe plan mondial.  


Analiza tehnica Fondul Proprietatea (FP) 2012.01.09

Fondul Proprietate a inchis saptamana precedent in zona de indecizie 0,4230-0,4320 RON (zona de rezistenta anterioara) si atat timp cat pretul nu se va stabiliza deasupra nivelului 0,4320 RON nu se va da semnal de cumparare.

O evolutie posibila in cazul unei cresteri este trasata pe graficul zilnic iar prima zona de rezistenta este data de nivelele 0,4520 si 0,4600 RON.

Primul suport pentru ziua de azi este la 0,4230 RON iar o eventuala scadere sub acest nivel va scadea sansele unei cresteri in perioada imediat urmatoare. 


Analiza Tehnica OMV Petrom (SNP) 2012.01.09

Pretul actiunilor OMV Petrom a incheiat saptamana precedenta in crestere, in interiorul zonei de rezistenta 0,2950-0,3000 RON, care ramane o zona cheie pentru evolutia pretului: ( http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-omv-petrom-snp-20120105.html).

Volumele de saptaman trecuta sunt mai mari, comparative cu cele de la finalul anului 2011, iar in cazul unei strapungeri a rezistentei active, pretul are sanse de a creste in perioada urmatoare. Urmarim scenariul plasat pe grafic de la sfarsitul anului trecut.

Deocamdata nu exista semnal de cumparare (in cazul unui semnal de cumparare se va plasa o bulina verde pe grafic).