Market Technical View is a blog that mostly concerns the technical analysis of different financial instruments like indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs and currencies.

All the posts are structured in 3 main chapters that can be found in Content, in the upper right-hand corner of the blog.

Market perspective. The technical approach consists of chart patterns and important support/resistance zones. The purpose of this section is to give directions of the price on short and medium term (a few days up to a few months).

Trading setups. The analysis posted here will provide trading scenarios based on different technical tools.

Romanian Market. This is a section dedicated to Romanian stocks and indices.

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Friday, February 24, 2012

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) bullish channel broke 2012.02.24

A daily chart of the Hewlett-Packard Company  shows a bearish trend in the last years.

Moreover, the bullish channel between August 2010 and February 2011 signaled a continuing bear trend as soon as the price broke below its lower border in late February.

The same scenario seems to take place now: the bullish channel started in late September 2011 was broke yesterday and the bearish trend has a high probability of continuation.


SIF Oltenia (SIF5) Technical Analysis 2012.02.24

Although during the last session the price reached in the resistance zone of 1.4500 RON, the closing price settled at the level of 1.4280 RON.

Still maintain the high probability for a correction with the targets at 1.3240 and 1.2550 RON levels. The international markets evolutions will influence also the local market and in terms of investors' sentiment, an eventual profit taking in this area would be normal.


SIF Banat-Crisana (SIF1) Technical Analysis 2012.02.24

The lack of bulls' strength close to a strong resistance can be seen in the daily chart of SIF1 issuer.

The last days of the last week represented a new attempt to reach the target from 1.3000 RON area but the bears didn't wait and liquidated some of their shares in the 1.2500 RON area.

The first daily support (1.2245 RON) is standing really close to the last daily close and in the short term may be considered a sell level (in case that the price will drop below the support).

In case of a short and mid-term correction, the main target area is on 1.0770 RON.


Fondul Proprietatea (FP) Technical Analysis 2012.02.24

Fondul Proprietatea (FP) securities have experienced the most important increase in BET and BET-FI in the last session.

The daily chart shows the trading history since the listing date and the level of 0.5670 RON represents a resistance for the price. In the last weeks the price hesitated near the value of 0.5380 RON, level that represents the 50% retracement from 2011 year decline.

The further increasing chances maintain valid but, the investors must take into consideration the international markets evolution. The first relevant level of support is at 0.5380 RON level.  


Thursday, February 23, 2012

Bursa de Valori Bucuresti (BVB) Technical Analysis 2012.02.23

BVB shares price suffered a correction in the last two weeks, when the bears ocurred in the market, close of the 36.50 RON resistance.

The last couple of sessions led to a decrease of 5.7% and 33.00 RON level represents a temporary support. The next important support is given by the level of 30.00 RON, the zone where have settled previous local lows and highs.


Erste Group Bank (EBS) Technical Analysis 2012.02.23

The last analysis of Erste Group Bank issuer ( http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/02/erste-group-bank-ebs-technical-analysis_13.html ) signal a correction after the short term increasing movement, showed a weakness against the resistance from the 88.00 RON level.

Further, the most important level of support on the short run is the 80.00 RON level and in case that the price will fall below it, the next target for correction will be in the 70.00 RON area.




S&P 500 bearish divergence 2012.02.23

A daily chart of the S&P 500 Index shows the first clear bearish divergence since the 2011 October lows.

The bearish divergence means that the trend is weakening and adding the fact that the 2011 highs represent strong resistance, the investors should pay attention to an eventual sharp correction.

The first level of support is in the $1,342 area and if the price will decisively brake below it we can look for a broader decline, at least on the short term.


Wal-Mart (WMT) target on the mid-term is at $55.00 2012.02.23


Wal-Mart analysis of Tuesday showed a warning for the bulls and was establishing a good support in the $60.00 area.

Two days later, the price almost reached the $58.00 level and this bearish move could travel towards the $55.00 target in a matter of weeks or months.

However, a throwback is possible at any time (generated by speculators) and the $60.00 is now resistance.



Wednesday, February 22, 2012

DAX Technical Analysis 2012.02.22

The DAX Index traded almost all the month of February in an overbought zone according to the RSI indicator.

The daily chart of DAX shows a bullish channel still in progress  and a negative divergence on RSI that represents a weakening trend. The 7.000 level represents a resistance for the Index while the first main support is given by the lower border of the bullish channel and the 6.800 horizontal level.

If the investors will liquidate some of their long positions, a break below the support level of 6.800 will set the market for further correction.


Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2012.02.22

One of the previous analysis on Crude Oil (WTI) showed that the January 2012 decline had high chances to provide buying opportunities as the move had a corrective development (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/02/crude-oil-wti-technical-analysis_09.html) .

As the upper limit of the bearish channel was breached, the price moved towards the previous highs area ($103.50) rather quickly. Moreover, the good signs from Greece and the tensions in Iran lead to more bullishness.

Starting from the mid-December, the price formed an AB=CD structure and the $106.00 level could be a pivot point. In case of a reversal, the equilibrium zone is set in the 50% retracement of the previous rally, around the $101.00 area. 


SIF Banat-Crisana (SIF1) Technical Analysis 2012.02.22

SIF Banat-Crisana shares price maintains in the resistance area given by the 2012 highs but the fading of the positive sentiment is seen in both volumes decline and the price action.

Further, it remains to watch if the bulls will have the necessary strength to break the 1.3000 RON level. Otherwise, a lower low (below the 1.1600-1.1700 RON area) will lead to a broader correction with the first target in the 1.0070-1.0700 RON area.

The first support is given by the opening level of the Monday's session in 1.2245 RON.


SIF Muntenia (SIF4) Technical Analysis 2012.02.22

SIF Muntenia (SIF4) has the same price action as SIF1 in the last weeks but, the SIF4 price didn't reach yet in the 2011 highs area (0.8680 RON).

On short term, the first support is given by the 0.7330 RON level and the first resistance is at the level of 0,7880 RON. In case that, the bulls will not have the strength to lead and then to keep the price above the resistance, the market will have good chances for a broader correction.


Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Wal-Mart (WMT) is trading in a rising wedge

Wall Mart shares are trading within a rising wedge on the mid-term that usually forms at the end of a trend.

The $16.20 area represents the 2008 highs and, along with the wedge pattern, it could lead to profit taking that, in turn, could generate a correction. The declining volumes on the past 6 months of rising prices shows an unsustainable trend.

However, for those seeking for a good stop loss level, the lower limit of the wedge can be considered, followed by the $60.00 support level.


General Electric (GE) share price in range trading

The General Electric daily chart clearly shows an indecision in the last weeks, close to a resistance zone.

Id the bulls will manage to sustain the price above the $19.50 level, that there will be good chances to retest the 2011 highs, in the $21.50 area.

However, if there will be some profit taking and the price will break below the $18.70 support level, than a larger correction is in place, targeting the $17.00 support zone. 


SIF Oltenia (SIF5) Technical Analysis 2012.02.21

The SIF5 shares price evolution from the last four months is framed by an ascending channel whose limits act as support and resistance.

This, together with the 2011 summer highs from 1.4500 RON area, establish a strong resistance for the price and, in case of a correction, the first target will be around the 1.3580 RON level, given by Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%.

The volumes down in recent days attest the weaker interest of investors but this fact can be only a break in the investor's positive sentiment.


SIF Moldova (SIF2) Technical Analysis 2012.02.21

SIF Moldova securities (SIF2) are maintained after the first session of the week below the resistance level given by last years highs, at 1.5000 RON.

In technical terms, the buying at these prices is risky because, in case of an eventual correction, the assumed risk is too high. As support levels for the price, there is the trend line T1 and the 1.3500-1.4000 RON area.

For investors who hold shares and wish to establish an exit level in case of a reverse, a decline below the supports mentioned above can be considered a sell signal.


SIF Transilvania (SIF3) - Technical Analysis 2012.02.21

The resistance given by the weekly highs (in the 0.6730 RON area) was not broke in the first session of the week and thus, it maintained its validity for the next days. 

The mid-term channel fit the price of the last 2 months and its limits can be considered as support and resistance for the price.

Also, the T1 trend line together with the 0.6100-0.6300 RON area forms a strong support. The increase target remains in the 0.7150 RON area and an eventual breach of the highs from 0.6730 RON will confirm the great potential of touching it.