Market Technical View is a blog that mostly concerns the technical analysis of different financial instruments like indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs and currencies.

All the posts are structured in 3 main chapters that can be found in Content, in the upper right-hand corner of the blog.

Market perspective. The technical approach consists of chart patterns and important support/resistance zones. The purpose of this section is to give directions of the price on short and medium term (a few days up to a few months).

Trading setups. The analysis posted here will provide trading scenarios based on different technical tools.

Romanian Market. This is a section dedicated to Romanian stocks and indices.

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Friday, December 16, 2011

EUR-USD vs. S&P500

I just noticed this very interesting chart that shows the good correlation of the EUR-USD cross and the S&P 500 index.

If EUR-USD is leading, which happened before, than the bulls in S&P should take great care.

EUR-USD Technical Anlalysis 2011.12.16

The EUR-USD gave a fake brake signal in the past few hours, when the 1,3040 resistance was temporary breached.

I am going along with my previous opinion and say that 1,2900 is a very strong target and it is acting as a magnet for the market.  

Check yesterday analysis and see what 1,2900 really means:

SP 500 Technical Analysis 2011.12.16

A quick look to the SP500 futures shows prices testing several times the 1,226 resistance level, showing though a bullish pressure in this area.

The technical analysis for S&P 500 index shows the current resistance zone is between the $1,226 and $1,231 levels and an eventual break of it will confirm the reversal on a longer timeframe ( If this will be the case, the first target will be set by early December highs, in the $1,267 area.

DAX Technical Analysis 2011.12.16

DAX index is trading in the 5,700-5,800 area for several hours now and if we look at the bigger picture, we notice that the previous lows (5,650 zone) are not in danger and there is a symmetrical triangle pattern emerging which usually is a continuation pattern.

Moreover, DAX  is recovering after a 2 week correction (from the 5th of dec.) that can reveal attracting prices for possible bulls.

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2011.12.16

Crude Oil moved yesterday out of the indecision zone between $94.00 and $95.50 levels, now retesting the lower border that turned into first resistance.

I plotted on the H4 chart the most probable 2 scenarios that are pointing lower, in the $90.00 area as the main target for a down move. However, we have to pay attention to US Dollar price action and the news from Iran (instability rumors from this area will rise the oil price).

On the 15 min timeframe the chart shows strong resistance in the $94.30 - $94.90 area and by now we have conformation of bear intervention at $94.30 as the price moved away after retesting it.

Here, the target for a swing down (AB=CD) is in the $91.50 area. PAY  ATTENTION! Crude Oil can travel up to $94.90 (creatin a 3 wave up move correction) before the descending trend will resume(see it on the h4 chart).

Analiza Tehnica SIF Oltenia (SIF5) 2011.12.16

Semnalul de cumparare dat saptamana trecuta ( ) pentru SIF 5 a generat, pana in prezent, un randamant de 11,7%.

Datorita capacitatii de progres pe termen scurt (cateva zile - saptamani)  mentinem semnalul de cumparare activ. Un nivel de suport pentru ziua de azi se observa la nivelul 1,0650 RON iar rezistenta ramana aceeasi: zona 1,2400 - 1,3000  RON.

Analiza Tehnica SIF Muntenia (SIF4) 2011.12.16

SIF Muntenia a atins maximul de 0,5900 RON in sedinta de ieri iar din punctual de vedere a actiunii pretului, zona de rezistenta 0,6150 - 0,6400 RON poate atrage atentia vanzatorilor.

Primul suport pentru azi este dat de nivelul 0,5490 RON, nivel important in actiunea anterioara a pretului.

Analiza tehnica SIF Transilvania (SIF3) 2011.12.16

SIF Translvania a atins intimpul sedintei de ieri maximul de 0,6060 RON/actiune, acesta reprezentand zona maximelor de la inceputul lunii aprilie 2011.

Suportul zilnic este dat la nivelul 0,5630 RON in timp ce rezistenta este data de maximele atinse in 21 noiembrie, in zona 0,6200 RON. 

Analiza Tehnica SIF Moldova (SIF2) 2011.12.16

Semnalul de cumparare dat pentru SIF Moldova ( ) a adus un randament de 14,3% iar tinta 1,1500 RON a fost atinsa in timpul sedintei.

Pentru minimizarea riscului si pentru a evita volatilitatea este recomandata vanzarea sau reducerea numarului de actiuni.

Analiza Tehnica SIF Banat Crisana (SIF1) 2011.12.16

SIF Banat Crisana a atins tinta din zona maximelor lunii noiembrie, in zona 1,0270 RON, dupa ce piata a fost pusa in miscare in urma votarii pragului de detinere a SIF-urilor.

In continuare, ne asteptam la volatilitate mare in zilele urmatoare iar suportul cel mai important este dat de nivelul 0,9090 RON. 

Thursday, December 15, 2011

SP 500 Technical Analysis 2011.12.15

SP500 bounces off a main support zone in what can turn into a move of breaking previous highs in the $1,270 area.

The chart is very explicit and the previous analysis ( ) is confirmed.

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2011.12.15

Crude Oil evolves in a range market since November  17 and from my point of view anything can happen in the next days.

My second target, from december 6th (crude oil was trading at $101.00), on the short side was achieved yesterday ( ) and currently Crude Oil is trading within an indecision zone (between $94.00 and $95.50) due to previous highs and lows that defines the market.

CONCLUSION: as long as Crude Oil is not clearly establishing  the 94.00 - 95.50 zone as a support or resistance, there is nothing to do in this market. 

EUR-USD Technical Anlalysis 2011.12.15

EUR-USD cross is clearly in a down trend and the Elliott Wave count shows a final swing don, representing wave 5 of the move started in late October (at 1,4200).

There is not a clear support below the current price as EURUSD cross explores the year’s lows (made in early January). Therefore, we should expect higher highs and higher lows on the short term (a couple of weeks) in order to spot a reversal.

On the daily chart we can see that this year’s lows (early january) are very close (1,2900 area) and, moreover, there an AB=CD structure ending that highlights the same support zone.   

DAX Technical Analysis 2011.11.15

DAX confirmed (for now) the falling wedge as a final move down of a correction and for further confirmation  it needs to break resistances at 5,766 and 5,860 levels.

The short term target is set at the early December highs, in the 6,170 area.  The Elliot wave count shows wave ii ended and wave iii beginning, in a 5 wave up move that points to the 6,800 – 7,000 area.

The charts below compares the last 2 analysis of DAX Index.

Analiza Tehnica BRD 2011.12.15

Dupa cum se anticipa in analiza precedenta ( ), pretul actiunilor BRD au intampinat o rezistenta in zona liniei de trend T1 (10,99 RON) care a stopat temporar cresterea.

Suportul pe termen scurt este dat de nivelul 10,68 RON iar atentia asupra SIF-urilor ar putea cauza vanzarea unor actiuni BRD. Scenariul de crestere ramane active, farasemnal de cumparare deocamdata. Pentru cumpararea avem nevoie de confiramrea data de strapungerea liniei de trend T1 si o eventuala retestare (ca si suport) a acesteia.

Analiza tehnica BET-FI 2011.12.15

Indicele SIF-urilor se mentine in zona corectiva, raportata la cresterea lunilor octombrie si noiembrie iar suportul zilnic este dat de zona 17.680 - 17.840.

Momentan, SIF-urile sunt blocate pentru tranzactionare datorita sanselor mari de a se vota pragul de detinere in sedinta de azi a camerei deputatilor. Aceasta stire vine ca si confirmare a scenariului dat inca de la inceputul lunii noiembrie ( ) in care se anticipa o miscare formata din 3 valuri.

Zona de rezistenta actuala este 18.630 - 19.036 insa exista sanse foarte mari ca aceasta sa fie depasita in momentul redeschiderii tranzactionarii pentru SIF-uri. Tinta clasica pe crestere este data de nivelul superior al zonei tinta, la nivelul 22.820.

AAPL trendline touch

AAPL just touched the line in the sand.The 350 area should act as support  >in case<  the trend breaks.
This might be the perfect opportunity for bulls to step in as we have seen this type of sideways pattern before.

GLD trendline break

Looks like the party is over on GLD.With the US dollar breaking resistance, gold has a long way to come down while the $ has a long way to go up.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

SP500 falling wedge pattern

The falling wedge could end up this short term correction .
RSI shows bullish divergence.
1208 level is strong support.
To sum up, there could be a very important entry level in this area (on the long side of course)
Theese are only fact to wach!!! The price action must confirm this sceanrio before you can buy SP500.

DAX Technical Analysis 2011.12.14

DAX index continues the short term decline, breaking through the 50% retracement level (5,770) and testing now the 61.8% retracement level.
As stated in the previous analysis, the main support zone is between the 5,680 and 5,849 levels.
On medium term (a few months) we are looking at higher lows and one sharp rally that ended in late October at 6,425 level. Having this in mind and adding the possible bullish reversal on RSI, I am looking for a confirmation of reversal in this area in order to give buying signals.

On the 30min chart (a closer look) I plotted the falling wedge pattern, which usually leads to a sharp move in the opposite direction. Moreover, this wedge could end up as a final wave of a 3 wave corrective move (down) started in early December. The wedge pattern implies, in many cases, a final thrust that is travelling beyond the T2 trend line, before the direction change. 

SSEC-X triangle breakout weekly

This looks scarry.

Analiza Tehnica Azomures (AZO) 2011.12.14

Emitentul Azomures este in topul performerilor din cadrul BVB, reusind sa depaseasca maximele din 2008, in timp ce majoritatea companiilor s-au supus pietei in scadere in ultimii 3 ani.

Din punct de vedere tehnic, linia de trend T2 este cea mai importanta in prezent. Investitorii au reactionat la zvonurile preluarii uzinei chimice de catre o companie europeana iar in ultima perioada tranzactiile au revenit la nivelul normal.

In cazul in care, pentru o perioada, nu vor mai exista stiri fundamentale, exista sanse reale sa asistam la o corectie a pretului. Suportul principal este dat de nivelul 0,9000 RON.

Analiza Tehnica Fondul Proprietatea (FP) 2011.12.14

Graficul emitentului Fondul Proprietatea se mentine, si dupa saptamana trecuta, in zona minimelor 0,4150 - 0,4320 RON, fara elemente care sa semnaleze o reversie.

Nivelele de suport si rezistenta sunt aceleasi ( ) iar minimele si maximele anterioare in scadere mentin tendinta generala descendenta.

Analiza Tehnica SIF Oltenia (SIF5) 2011.12.14

Sedinta de ieri a dus la o crestere de 2,4% iar inchiderea s-a produs la nivelele maxime ale zilei, in zona 1,0350 RON, indepartandu-se astfel de zona de suport 0,9680 - 0,9940 RON.

Semnalul de cumparare dat in analiza precedent ( ) a adus deja un profit minim investitorilor insa tinta pe crestere este data in zona 1,2400 - 1,3000 RON. Prima rezistenta semnificativa se afla la nivelul 1,1200 RON.

Cel mai probabil investitorii vor reactiona, din nou, la proiectul de lege pentru ridicare pragului de detinere la SIF-uri. Acest motiv, coroborat cu zona puternica de suport si cu evolutia pretului si a volumelor in ultimele luni intaresc posibilitatea unei cresteri.


UUP broke resistance

The dollar etf broke resistance , re-tested and is currently going up.Looks like the good old us dollar will be an interesting bet in the weeks/months to come.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2011.12.13

Last post on Crude Oil ( ) stated that the first bearish target at $98.00 was achieved and a bounce should occur (and it did).

As it turns out now, the $97.60 - $98.00 area created a strong support that was tested twice, forming a double bottom that could generate a bullish swing in the next days.

The last part of the rising wedge and the following price action formed a bearish channel (between T1 and T2 trend lines) that describes the market.

I plotted on the chart the 2 most possible price evolutions in the future couple of days. Whatever will be, I look for a break-retest-continuation price action in order to generate a good trade scenario.

Analiza Tehnica SIF Moldova (SIF2) 2011.12.13

SIF Moldova isi mentine sansele ridicate de crestere pe termen scurt si mediu iar semnalul de cumparare dat saptamana trecuta ( ) se mentine valid.

Cresterea din lunile Octombrie si Noiembrie insotita de volume corespunzatoare poate continua dupa corectia inceputa in 21 Noiembrie. Zona de suport 0,8600 - 0,9320 RON este puternica iar tint ape crestere ramane in zona superioara a zonei 1,0700 - 1,1500 RON.

Analiza Tehnica SIF Banat Crisana (SIF1) 2011.12.13

Evolutia pretului SIF Banat Crisana din ultimele luni indica posibilitatea unui nou val de crestere in perioada urmatoare, desi tinta principal de la nivelul 1,0300 RON (62% din scaderea aprilie-octombrie) a fost atinsa.

Pe termen scurt (mai putin de o luna) ne aflam intr-o corectie care a fost oprita de catre investitori la nivelul 0,8400 RON (62% retragere corespunzatoare cresterii octombrie-noiembrie) si care coincide si cu suportul oferit de linia de trend T1.

Prima rezistenta se afla la nivelul 0,9080 RON si poate fi folosita de catre investitori drept confirmare, in cazul in care va fi depasita.   

Analiza Tehnica Banca Transilvania (TLV) 2011.12.13

Actiunile Bancii Transilvania s-au tranzactionat in sedinta de ieri sub limita superioara a zonei de suport (0,9000 RON) iar pentru azi se da un semnal de vanzare.

Chiar daca zona de suport 0,8710 - 0,9000 RON poate da nastere unei reversii in continuare, maximele locale in scadere din ultimele 7 luni indica sanse de continuare a trendului negativ.

Pretul testeaza pentru a treia oara zona de suport mai sus mentionata iar in cazul unei reversii se va astepta crearea unui nou maxim local, deasupra nivelului 0,9590 RON.   

Monday, December 12, 2011

Analiza Tehnica BET-FI 2011.12.12

Indicele BET-FI a ramas in consolidare deasupra suportului 17.680 iar zona de rezistenta este data de nivelele 18.630 - 19.030.

Scenariul de crestere ramane valid insa doar pe SIF2 si SIF5 exista semnale de cumparare date saptamana trecuta (  SI ).

Prima confirmare de crestere va veni odata cu strapungerea rezistentei 18.630 - 19.030 

Analiza Tehnica Banca Transilvania (TLV) 2011.12.12

Ultimele trei sedinte de tranzactionare au dus la revenirea pretului in zona semnalului de cumparare dat acum o saptamana ( ) iar limita superioara a zonei de suport 0,8710 – 0,9000 RON a reprezentat minimul ultimei sedinte.

Scenariul de crestere se mentine valid iar prima tinta (0,9590 RON) a fost ratata de putin la mijlocul saptamanii trecute. In continuareminimul dublu creat in ultimele 3 luni poate sta la baza unei reversii semnificative. Prima confirmare in acest caz ar fi sustinerea cumparatorilor in zona actuala de suport.  

Analiza Tehnica Transgaz Medias (TGN) 2011.12.12

Graficul emitentului Transgaz Medias contine semnale contradictorii odata cu incheierea saptamanii tercute si cu forma lumanarilor corespnzatoare.

Pe termen foarte scurt (cateva zile) nivelul 216,00 RON reprezinta rezistenta principala care, coroborata cu forma ultimelor 4 lumanari, indica o corectie. Pe termen mediu insa, evolutia pretului in ultimele 4 luni arata un trend crescator, cu minime si maxime in crestere, iar in cazul unei scaderi pe termen scurt, ne asteptam ca suportul 203,13-208,70 RON sa-si indeplineasca rolul.