Market Technical View is a blog that mostly concerns the technical analysis of different financial instruments like indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs and currencies.

All the posts are structured in 3 main chapters that can be found in Content, in the upper right-hand corner of the blog.

Market perspective. The technical approach consists of chart patterns and important support/resistance zones. The purpose of this section is to give directions of the price on short and medium term (a few days up to a few months).

Trading setups. The analysis posted here will provide trading scenarios based on different technical tools.

Romanian Market. This is a section dedicated to Romanian stocks and indices.

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Friday, February 10, 2012

DAX Technical Analysis 2012.02.10

DAX Index is currently testing the key support level of 6.680 Euros and an eventual break of it will show the investor’s approach for the next days.

The bullish channel of the previous three weeks is also on the verge of breaking and the previous local low set early on this week stand as a support also.

An interesting this regarding the markets is that the investors did not react to the Greek debt plan vote on yesterday as they did on the rumors. Add this to the zone of major highs that the markets are trading at and pay attention to potential profit taking that will, eventually create at least a local high around this area.  


Banca Transilvania (TLV) Tehnical Analysis 2012.02.10

Banca Transilvania shares price broke in today's session the 1.03500 RON resistance, transforming it in the first support for the next days.

The started reversal in 20 December reached now to the half of decline from May-December 2011 and this area represents a resistance for the price.  

As with other shares like SIF, TLV it could continue the mid-term trend (of increasing) but in case of obvious declines below settled support areas will be recommended the selling shares default.   

In case that the rise will continue in the next period, the next target is given by 1.1200-1.1590 RON area.


SIF Oltenia (SIF5) Technical Analysis 2012.02.10

SIF Oltenia shares price reached the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% reported to the entire decline from March-October of the last year.  

The entire area between 1.3240 and 1.4500 RON levels represents a resistance area but, this doesn’t necessary assume a trend reversal; it’s just an investors attention for a precautious attitude.

The price evolution from the last 4 months shows the framing into an upward channel and the last session rise led the price closer to the upper limit of the channel that is the T2 trend line.

On very short term (few days) the first support is given by the 1.3240 RON level and the resistance is at 1.4500 RON level.


SIF Muntenia (SIF4) Technical Analysis 2012.02.10

SIF Muntenia (SIF4) was among the most performance companies in the previous session, managing to brake the resistance from the level of 0.7330 RON which became now the first support.

Last summer (between May 18 and July 7) was a consolidation period for the SIF4 shares price and for this reason was expected that investors to react in the 0.6930-0.7330 RON area.

Although the price breached this area, it remains yet important and it is set for the next period as support zone.

The target for the rise of SIF4 shares is now given by the last year highs, at, 0.8700 RON level, but there is an intermediate resistance at 0.8000 RON. Although, the trend from the last months is strongly ascending, is recommend PRECAUTION!


Thursday, February 9, 2012

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2012.02.09

WTI Crude Oil is trading today under the $100.00 resistance level, which represents the key level for the next days.

The $98.00 support zone seems strong enough for the moment and the Greek Agreement signed today could push the oil prices above $100.00 today.

On the mid-term a bearish channel has formed and an eventual break above its upper border (T1 line) will signal further bullishness. 


S&P 500 Technical Analysis 2012.02.09

S&P 500 evolution is reflected by the bullish channel started in late December and, in the previous few sessions the T2 line is the main resistance for the price.

The good news that came from Greece today regarding the austerity measures is, in essence, a bullish stimulant for the markets but the next few days will show how the investors are reflecting it.

The first support is at the $1,340 level but on mid-term the $1,323-$1,328 zone represents the key zone.


SIF Banat-Crisana (SIF1) Technical Analysis 2012.02.09

The last analysis of SIF Banat-Crisana issuer shows the importance of 1.0000-1.0770 RON area (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/02/sif-banat-crisana-sif1-technical.html) and it gave a profit markup signal of more than 11.5%.

The investors optimism led to a strong upward evolution in the last 5 sessions, thus making the price not to oscillate too much in the mentioned above area.  

Further on, the next target is given by the 2011 year highs, in the 1.3000 RON area, but without giving a buying signal. Even in this rhythm a few days of correction is possible. In this case, a successfully retest of 1.0770 RON support would create a profitable buying scenario.


Erste Group Bank (EBS) Technical Analysis 2012.02.09

The evolution of the last session led to an increase of 7.6% in Erste Group Bank shares, thus approaching the lower limit  of the resistance area given from the beginning of January (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-erste-group-bank-ebs.html).

The strong performance from the last month can be attributed to many considerations but, the investors need to be cautious about the yet uncertain situation of Greece.

In technical terms, it has been established a daily support at 80.00 RON level which can be used by investors that have profit as exit signal (to those who act in the short term).


Bursa de Valori Bucuresti (BVB) Technical Analysis 2012.02.09

The last analysis of Bursa de Valori Bucuresti (BVB) issuer (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-bursa-de-valori_16.html ) signaled incertitude in the bullish price direction.

However, once the 30.00 RON resistance level was broke, the investors bet on a bullish move and brought the price to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline of 2011 year.  

The most important resistance area for the next days is delimited by 36.50 and 37.55 RON levels. The daily support is very close to the last day’s closing, at 35.25 RON and an eventual closing below this level will set the market for a correction with the target to the next support, in the 33.00 RON area.


Wednesday, February 8, 2012

EUR-USD Technical Anlalysis 2012.02.08

The EUR-USD cross is in a recovery move after the broad decline of the October-January period.

As the most recent correction move (labeled as B) has ended, there is a high probability to see further bullishness. The first target is in the 1.3390-1.3430 area, followed by the 1.3600 level.

However, the investors are watching closely the Greek debt plan news and this could move the market in either direction. If a correction is to come on the very short term (a few days) the T1 line is presumed to be a good support. 


DAX Technical Analysis 2012.02.08

A six months chart of DAX Index shows a three wave upward move that started in September 2011.

The last period shows that the price is currently in a clear up trend and in order to spot a reversal we need to see lower lows and lower highs. Therefore, the most important support level on the short term is the 6.680 level.

The rally that started in mid- November reached the 100% extension of the September-October up swing. Moreover, on the shorter term, wave C is now between the 138.2% and 150% extension of wave A. Another important support is offered by the lower limit of the bullish channel that started in mid-January.   



Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Brent Crude vs. WTI Crude 2012.02.07

The comparative charts of BRENT and WTI Crude Oil is pointing out significant changes since January 2011.

The lower chart shows the correlation index of Brent and WTI and a value close to 1 indicates a good correlation. Since the beginning of last year, Brent started to rise faster than the WTI and this scenario seems to repeat in the beginning of this year, too.

In the last couple of weeks, the Brent reacted the most to the instability in Iran while the WTI kept its low rates due to the large stocks in oil in USA and concerns on the demand side.


Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis 2012.02.07

The Brent Crude Oil is rising on almost all the time frames and, on the short term, the $113.15-$113.90 area is the first important support, given by previous highs.

The traders are probably the most influenced by the tensions in Iran and this is motivating to keep their long positions, even if the WTI benchmark is down sloping.

The main target on the long side is set by the $120.00 level and in case the price will correct towards the support, a new buy opportunity could appear.

The Greek debt plan talks are in focus for the next days and Brent is very probable to react to these kind of news.


Stocks performance is cyclical

A comparative analysis of BET-FI and BET shows a better performance of the financial institutions (SIFs and FP) in the last 4 months (on mid-term).

The first chart shows the BET-FI index evolution while the second chart represents the ratio of BET-FI and BET. An increasing slope indicates a superior performance of BET-FI index.
A pertinent interpretation would be that when the market is declining, it is preferable to hold shares of BET index and in the moment that the market gives recovery signals (of increasing), it is preferable to change the shares with the ones from BET-FI.

CONCLUSION: pay attention to the next trend reversal!



OMV Petrom (SNP) Technical Analysis 2012.02.07

Technically speaking, OMV Petrom correction perspective from the previous analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/02/omv-petrom-snp-technical-analysis.html) has strengthened due to negative sentiment investors showed today.

In the last 4 sessions, two bearish engulfing patterns were created, thus showing the investors attitude towards the market: sell on a high opening and closing down significantly, without intention to buy at low prices at the end of the session.

The first support zone for eventual correction is between 0.3240-0.3300 RON levels, which is about in the target area given in January (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-omv-petrom-snp-20120123.html).



Fondul Proprietatea (FP) Technical Analysis 2012.02.07

Monday session closed relatively well, after in the first part, the sellers tested the upper limit of the support area (0.5077 RON level).

Further on, the price direction is uncertain because of the 0.5360-0.5650 RON resistance area strong influence. The strong sentiment of optimism seems to have diminished but, as it was specified in the previous analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/02/fondul-proprietatea-fp-technical.html), an eventual broke of the support area will create a broader correction outlook, with target/support in the 0.4550-0.4650 RON area.



Monday, February 6, 2012

S&P 500 Technical Analysis bullish channel

S&P 500 index is still evolving in bullish channel and the good NFP report of Friday lead to the market surge up to the T2 resistance line.

Further on, all the traders seem to be focused on the Greek debt plans talks and an eventual more clear statement will definitely move the market.

The most important support zone for the future days is between the $1,322-1,328 levels, immediately followed by the T1 trend line.


Bank Of America is on its way to $8.40 target

The previous analysis of Bank of America (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/02/bank-of-america-still-aims-for-840.html) pointed towards the uptrend resuming, heading for the $8.40 target.

The $7.40 temporary resistance was broken by the bulls and it represents now the firs support. Friday’s session closed near $8.00 level which is a psychological one and could involve many transactions.

The main focus of these days is at Greek debt discussions. The lack of news will probably make investors to worry and mark some profits.  


BET-FI Technical Analysis 2012.02.06

The BET-FI Index broke the 22.700-23.000 resistance area last week due to the optimistic sentiment in the market and good reports from U.S.A.

The 22.700-23.000 area became thus the first support area which, if will be broken, it will create the broader correction perspective. The next resistance area is given by the 24.500-25.000 levels and the investors behavior close to it will indicate the short-term  or even mid-term market direction.  


SIF Moldova (SIF2) Technical Analysis 2012.02.06

SIF2 shares price is near the highs of 30th of March 2011, in the 1.5000 RON area.

Friday’s session confirmed the support function of the 1.4000 RON level which still remains a key level for the price action.  

SIF Moldova is among the SIFs outperformers in the last 4 months, managing to recover all 2011 year decline. A mid-term correction (at least several weeks) will be signaled in case that the price will decrease below 1.3500-1.4000 RON support area.


Fondul Proprietatea (FP) Technical Analysis 2012.02.06

On the short-term (few weeks), the Fondul Proprietatea shares have kindled the investor’s interest and the resistance levels were, in turn, breached by the price.

The Friday’s session created a specific candle for a local high but, this signal is not sufficient for a sale because the investors sentiment remains optimistic. Only a decline below the 0.5000-0.5077 RON support area will create the premise of a significant correction, with the target in the next support area, between 0.4550-0.4650 RON levels.

The target area for the uptrend still stands between 0,5360 and 0.5650 RON levels but, a reversal may occur below this area too, thus signaling weakness on buyers behalf and the sellers intervention in the market.  


Transgaz Medias (TGN) Technical Analysis 2012.02.06

Transgaz Medias shares price evolves in the mid-term (since August), in an ascending channel bounded by T1 and T2 trend line.

The 245.00 RON area represents a resistance, at least temporary, which may attract the attention of some sellers. Highs from 248.00 RON level represents the first resistance for the next session (from Monday). The most important support zone is between the levels of 225.00 and 229.00 RON. The daily support is given by 240.00 RON level and it can be taken as reference level for an eventual sale (stop loss or take profit).

The trend remains upward but, technically speaking, the price is close to some resistance levels (T2 trend line, 245.00 RON level) and the chances for a correction are high.