Market Technical View is a blog that mostly concerns the technical analysis of different financial instruments like indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs and currencies.

All the posts are structured in 3 main chapters that can be found in Content, in the upper right-hand corner of the blog.

Market perspective. The technical approach consists of chart patterns and important support/resistance zones. The purpose of this section is to give directions of the price on short and medium term (a few days up to a few months).

Trading setups. The analysis posted here will provide trading scenarios based on different technical tools.

Romanian Market. This is a section dedicated to Romanian stocks and indices.

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Thursday, March 1, 2012

SP 500 seems to be loosing momentum. 2012.03.01

S&P 500 Index still stands in the bullish channel but in the past couple of weeks the bulls failed to reach the upper limit (T2 trend line) which stands as a resistance for the market.

This weakening trend in the past weeks could determine some of the investors to liquidate at least part of their holdings and could also attract more and more bears into the market. These two actions could lead to a significant correction that would target the support levels shown on the chart.

The bearish trigger will be a break below the T1 trend line.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) $25.00 target almost reached. 2012.03.01

Hewlett-Packard almost reached the down side target of $25.00 set a few days ago ( ) after it broke the mid-term bullish channel.

Further on, the selling could continue below the first support ($25.00) targeting the $22.00 support area, where the September lows were formed.

However, the $25.00 support could be seen by some investors as a buying opportunity and this could turn into a pullback. 

SIF Transilvania (SIF3) - Elliott Wave Analysis. 2012.03.01

The Elliott Wave analysis of SIF3 shows the 5 wave ascending evolution of the price since the 9th of august.

In the last couple of months the price has evolved in a bullish channel that was formed by connecting the lows of waves ii and iv of the larger degree wave 5. The 2nd and 4th corrective waves respected the alternation principle and the projections for wave 5 are pointing to a resistance zone between the 0.6930 RON and 0.7250 RON levels.

The volumes are confirming the bull trend of the last 7 months and bearish divergence of the MACD indicator between the 3rd and the 5th wave (which is still in progress) is growing the probability of a near term correction.

The bearish divergence between wave ii and v of the 5th wave is clearer on the more detailed chart (below). However, this last wave can be extended which is why a correction will be more conclusive if the price will break below the lower limit of the current bullish channel (around 0.6750 RON at this moment).

In case of a reversal in the near term, the correction move on the mid-term (intermediary) will probably develop as an A-B-C pattern which will target the 0.5500-0.5600 RON area and the 0.5000 RON area. The length of an intermediary correction could easily last for a few months.  

Fondul Proprietatea (FP) Technical Analysis 2012.03.01

The FP shares price has almost reached the target of 0.6000 RON after the end of Wednesday's session marked an increase of over 5.00%.

The yesterday increase sets the first support at the level of 0.5670 RON and the first resistance is given by the 0,6000 RON target. In case of a broader correction, the first signal will come when the price will drop below the T1 trend line (the lower limit of the ascending channel).

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

DAX Technical Analysis 2012.02.28

The bearish signs are still on the chart of the DAX Index but it seems the bulls are still strong below the support level of 6.800, even though the mid-term bullish channel was breached twice.

On the short term (a few days) we could see a new high that will bring prices back in the channel. The double bottom pattern has a target of 7.000, which is a psychological level.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) target: $25.00. 2012.02.28

The previous analysis on HPQ ( ) showed a bearish break of the T1 trend line and the high probability of the price to travel towards previous lows for the next days (even weeks).

T1 trend line represents now the firs resistance and the first target is set by the late December lows, in the $25.00 area.

Bank Of America (BAC) - strong support at $7.65. 2012.02.28

The previous analysis of Bank of America ( ) pointed out a few arguments that can lead to achieving the $8.40 target in the next period.

Today, the $7.65 support proves stronger and the volumes show the interest in this stock at the support level. If nothing major will appear that could lead to a sell-off, the price can get rather quickly above $8.40 target.

SIF Moldova (SIF2) Technical Analysis 2012.02.28

The SIF2 shares price swings in the 2011 highs area, the balance point from the last weeks being at the 1.4500 RON level.

On mid-term, the T1 trend line characterizes the uptrend and, along with the 1.4000 RON horizontal level, form a strong support for the price.

An eventual break of the T1 trend line will activate the next immediate support from the 1.3500 RON level but the chances for an ampler correction in this context will increase.

SIF Banat-Crisana (SIF1) Technical Analysis 2012.02.28

The decline from the previous session led to the transformation of the 1.2245 RON level in the first resistance for SIF1 shares.

Further are two possible scenarios:
  1.    1. In case that the price consolidates around the 1.2245 RON value for the next days, the price can move relatively quickly towards the 1.3000 RON target and the last two weeks period will represents only a lateral correction.
  2.    2. A decline of international markets will also influence the investors from Romania and SIF shares will suffer, most likely, a zig-zag type correction, which can lead the prices by 1.0770 RON area.

The declining volumes since the highs day (14 Feb.) of the last period shows the decreasing interest of investors, which corresponds at this moment to both an ongoing lateral correction and to a first zig-zag type correction, ampler.  

Fondul Proprietatea (FP) Technical Analysis 2012.02.28

The first session of this week brought for Fondul Proprietatea issuer the largest decline from BET and BET-FI index, at just two sessions away from the biggest increase from the same index.

Technically speaking, the FP shares price maintain within the mid-term ascending channel and its lower limit represents the first support.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from 2011 decrease were relevant in the recent weeks and it is expected to have the same function in the next days. In case that the price will drop below the uptrend, the first support will be given by the 0.5380 RON level (Fibonacci 50%).