Market Technical View is a blog that mostly concerns the technical analysis of different financial instruments like indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs and currencies.

All the posts are structured in 3 main chapters that can be found in Content, in the upper right-hand corner of the blog.

Market perspective. The technical approach consists of chart patterns and important support/resistance zones. The purpose of this section is to give directions of the price on short and medium term (a few days up to a few months).

Trading setups. The analysis posted here will provide trading scenarios based on different technical tools.

Romanian Market. This is a section dedicated to Romanian stocks and indices.

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Friday, February 3, 2012

BRD-Groupe Societe Generale (BRD) Technical Analysis 2012.02.03

The BRD issuer shares price had a good evolution in the Thursday’s session and, the purchases from pre-closing showed the investor’s interest for this share.

Because of the breaching of previous highs, a new support level at 11.40 RON is settled and the target remains unchanged, in the 12.00-12.20 RON area.



Banca Transilvania (TLV) Tehnical Analysis 2012.02.03

The buying signal given for TLV shares on the 17th of January (http://www.goldring.ro/analiza-tehnica-banca-transilvania-(tlv)-2012.01.17.html) brought a return of about 11.00%.

The last couple of sessions attested that the sellers are stronger in the market and, although the price didn’t close below the support level of 1.0000 RON, it gives a sell signal to mark the profit on this transaction.

For those who want to maintain their buying positions they must take in consideration a possible correction with support in the 0,9400-0.9600 RON area.




OMV Petrom (SNP) Technical Analysis 2012.02.03

The OMV Petrom shares price evolution on Thursday, February 03, has led to a reversal pattern, at least temporary. 

The bearish engulfing pattern produced at the resistance level of 0.3440 RON (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) shows the investors negative sentiment from the last session and, as such, indicates a decline for the next days. Thus, it gives a sell signal for ending the transaction initiated on the 23rd of January (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-omv-petrom-snp-20120123.html).

The most important support for the price is in the 0.3240-0.3300 RON area, and this can represent a reversal area (toward the up side) in case that the mid-term trend (few months) will continue.


Thursday, February 2, 2012

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2012.02.02

The Crude Oil one hour chart shows a falling wedge that formed in the last couple of days.

This pattern is very reliable on the Crude Oil chart but a break above T3 trend line should occur in order to confirm a reversal. The internal structure of the wedge is made of five waves and if we correlate this with the Elliott Wave principle, the price reversal would indicate a rise up to $98.50 level (at least).

A good support is also offered by the longer T2 trend line.


Alcoa shares price could be cheap at $10.00. 2012.02.02

Alcoa shares traded yesterday close to the $10.00 support level, continuing though the few days of correction.
The medium trend still proves to be bullish as the price broke above T1 descending trend line. The first target is in the $11.20-$11.60 area and the $10.00-$10.30 area could turn out to be very profitable for the eventual buyers.


Bank of America still aims for $8.40 target

The previous analysis of Bank of America (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/bank-of-america-is-on-its-way-to-840.html) showed a temporary resistance in the $7.4000.

The BAC share price declined for a few days and found support at $7.0400 level as the bulls managed to dominate the bears. Yesterday’s session retested the current resistance ($7.4000) and the eventual break of it will confirm the bullish trend resuming (on short term).

The first target still stands in the $8.40-$8.90 area.


SIF Transilvania (SIF3) Technical Analysis 2012.02.02

The SIF Transilvania (SIF3) shares price managed in the previous session to break the resistance area of 0.6100-0.6290 RON, thus transforming it into the first support area. 

On short and mid-term (few days or even months) the price could continue its increasing, but for finding suitable areas for buying it must be found the support areas for the price in which the potential buyers find the price attractive.

A buying scenario would be given by a successful retest of 0.6000-0.63000 RON support area, as the daily chart shows. In case that this scenario will come true, the target will be given by 0.7150 RON area, given by the length of October-November up-swing projected from the 12 December local lows (0.5000 RON).


SIF Moldova (SIF2) Technical Analysis 2012.02.02

SIF Moldova (SIF2) along with SIF Transilvania, is one of the best performing components of BET-FI Index of the last months, managing to recover almost the entire 2011 decline.

The mid-term trend (started in 04 October) is obviously ascending, but the buying at this levels is risky because of the last year highs which represents the resistance for the price. 

Also, the evolution price from the last session led to the creation of a doji type candle and a gap and this is typical for a reversion. THE UPWARD TREND CAN CONTINUE nevertheless, for safety, it should be set an exit level (sell) in case that we assist to a local high. The best and the most near level is given by the close session on Tuesday, at 1.3490 RON level.


SIF Banat-Crisana (SIF1) Technical Analysis 2012.02.02

The buying signal given on 12 January (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-sif-banat-crisana-sif1.html) in the price area of 0.9240 RON has a yield of over 11.4%.

Last candle shape (hammer type) and the present price in the resistence area given by relevant Fibonacci levels and by previous highs give a signal for profit markup.

In case that 1.0000 RON level will settle as validated support (successfully tasted) will exist new buying opportunities with the target in the last year highs area (1,3000 RON area).


Wednesday, February 1, 2012

S&P 500 dirrection for the next days. 2012.02.01

This is an update of the previous analysis on S&P 500 Index (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/s-500-follows-bearish-scenario.html) that focused on the bearish pattern in progress (break-retest-continuation).

The current resistance area is between the $1,310-$1,315 levels and the T1 trend line. The first support is in the $1,300 area and an eventual break below it will confirm the further bearish outlook.

The start of the session and the end of the session will be very important in defining the investors sentiment. 


Banca Transilvania (TLV) Tehnical Analysis 2012.02.01

The previous analysis of Banca Transilvania company (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/banca-transilvania-tlv-tehnical.html ) showed the possibility of a price rise targeting at 0.9590 RON and 1.0000 RON.

After just a few days, TLV shares price broke the first target and it heads to the second. Daily support is now at 1.0000 RON/share (if the price will drop below it, this can be used as exit/sale signal) while the 0.9400-0.9590 RON area offers a stronger support for the next weeks.


BRD-Groupe Societe Generale (BRD) Technical Analysis 2012.02.01

The chances remains in favor of increasing BRD shares price, even if the buyers failed in the previous session to breach the highs from the beginning of the week (11.40 RON).

The first support level is at 11.00 RON and this provided its quality in the past sessions. The target area remains the same: between the levels of 12.00 RON and 12.20 RON. An eventual close below the support will signal an exit with a small loss.



SIF Oltenia (SIF5) Technical Analysis 2012.02.01

Share price of SIF Oltenia (SIF5) reached very close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-October 2011 decline.

Although the investor sentiment is strongly positive in recent weeks, the 1.2500-1.3500 RON area represents a resistence zone for the price. Buying in this area provides an unsatisfactory risk/reward yield.  

Trend T1 line characterizes the upward movement from the last months and along with the horizontal level of 1.1500 RON creates a good support.


Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Crude Oil trend is up

Crude Oil (WTI) traded below T2 trend line for about a month and broke today above the resistance, setting though the market for further rise.
The previous analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/crude-oil-wti-technical-analysis_24.html), in 24th of January, stated that the $97.00-$98.40 area is a strong support and the January move seems to be just a correction a larger rising trend.
As the break-out above the trend line already happened, there is a high probability to see a retest of it as a support (like shown in the chart). The older target at $103.00 area is still in place and an intermediary target can be set at $102.00 level. 


S&P 500 follows bearish scenario

S&P Index traded yesterday mostly below $1,313 key level and the previous analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/s-500-technical-analysis-20120130.html) still stands as T1 trend line is now acting as resistance.

The previous support zone, between the $1,310 and $1,313 levels is now current resistance and prices below 1,310 will confirm the bearish scenario.

If this scenario will turn out to be correct, the first support is in the $1,300 area (yesterday’s lows), followed by $1,250-$1,265 support area.


OMV Petrom (SNP) Technical Analysis 2012.01.31

The buying signal for OMV Petrom (SNP) shares on January 23 (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-omv-petrom-snp-20120123.html) currently has a yield of about 8.0%.

The 0.3240-0.3440 RON resistance area remains very important for the future price evolution and at this moment it keeps its resistence function.

On very short term (intraday or within a few days) the lower limit of above mentionated area (0.3240 RON) represents the first support and a price decrease under this level will generate a sell signal. The first target/resistence is given by the upper limit of the current area, at 0.3446 RON level.


SIF Muntenia (SIF4) Technical Analysis 2012.01.31

A sell signal was given by SIF Muntenia (SIF4) shares on Friday (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/sif-muntenia-sif4-technical-analysis_27.html ) to make a profit of 9.0%, on the buying signal on January 12 (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2012/01/analiza-tehnica-sif-muntenia-sif4.html  ).
Further on, the mid-term (several months) price action indicates an bullish channel and the main support area is between 0,6000 and 0,6215 RON levels.

First resistance is given by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last year decline, at 0,6690 RON level. Increasing volumes from January attest the growth veracity and a successful test of 0.6000-0.6215 area as support will create new buying opportunities. 



Fondul Proprietatea (FP) Technical Analysis 2012.01.31

FP (Fondul Proprietatea) shares price reached during in the past couple of sessions near to the level of 0,5000 RON/share and is recomanded to be cautious because we are under a resistance area (0.5000-0.5070 RON).

The most relevant support at this moment is the level of 0,4770 RON but the last session lows could be take into consider (0.4850 RON in this case).

Because the shares are traded close to a resistence and because of the last candle (which shows an indecision) who looks to a risk/reward ratio is unfavorable for an investor who follows a purchase. 


Monday, January 30, 2012

Wal-Mart share price is close to 2008 highs

Wal-Mart share price is getting close to 2008 highs ($63.20 area), forming a rising wedge pattern that usually states the end of a bullish move.

Although there has not been a selling signal yet, the investors should act carefully in this area, as the volumes seem to be descending while the price is rising.

The T1 trend line is the main support to watch and, along with the $58.90-$59.20 area can provide a good shorting opportunity if the brake-retest-continuation pattern will play along.

The main target is case of a reversal in this area is the $55.00 area. 


S&P 500 Technical Analysis 2012.01.30

The 60 min. chart of S&P Index (.US500.cfd in Dealbook) shows a bullish channel developing since the end of last year.

T1 trend line is acting as support and, along with the current support zone ($1,310-$1,313) is establishing a key zone that will give direction for the next days (even weeks).

The ideal bearish scenario will be the brake, retest and continuation pattern, establishing though the current support zone and the T1 line as the main resistance zone.

All the investors are focused on Greek debt talks and on bailout plan for Europe. These kind of news will motivate the traders to take decisions.


SIF Transilvania (SIF3) Technical Analysis 2012.01.30

On medium term (a few months) SIF Transilvania (SIF3) looks bullish, having higher highs and higher lows.

The current trading zone is a resistance area, due to previous important highs. The market is characterized by T1 trend line (as support) and 0.6100-0.6300 RON (as a resistance area). The break of the price in each direction will give further clues of direction for the next weeks and even months.

The daily support is at 0.5875 RON and this, combined with T1 trend line is giving a strong support for the price.


SIF Banat-Crisana (SIF1) Technical Analysis 2012.01.30

SIF Banat Crisana (SIF1) shares broke on Friday the 0,9380-0.9500 RON resistance zone, transforming it though in the first support zone.

The first target remains in the 1.0000-1.0700 RON and a retest of the support zone could happen in the next days, before the up trend will resume.

The longer market perspective shows a symmetrical triangle that broke its upper limit and set the prices to go higher. The low volumes during the consolidation pattern (triangle) and the previous market rally (started in early October) on good volumes provides a bullish scenario that will reach eventually the early April 2011 highs, in the 1,3000 RON area. 


Erste Group Bank (EBS) Technical Analysis 2012.01.30

The Erste Group Bank shares (EBS) had a strong rally in the past couple of weeks, managing to break above the key levels of 60.22 RON and 70.00 RON.

A large target zone of this current rising move is between the 88.00 and 113.15 Ron levels, set by the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-November decline.

The support zone is given by the past two key levels, between 60.22 and 70.00 RON and an eventual retest of it before making new highs is possible.


BET-FI Technical Analysis 2012.01.30

BET-FI Index achieved the early November target (http://www.goldring.ro/analiza-tehnica-bet-fi-2011.11.08.html) in the 21.500-22.800 area, projecting though a three wave pattern started in early October.

A longer time analysis shows that an important trend line (T1) that connects 2010 and 2011 highs was breached last week and this could have longer time bullish implications. However, the price is still facing some important resistance levels in the 22.800-23.000 area.

The current strategy will be to monitor the price action nearing the resistance levels and take precaution measures in case there will be a reversal here. The Greek debt issue and the whole bailout plan regarding Europe is still the main concern of investors.