Market Technical View is a blog that mostly concerns the technical analysis of different financial instruments like indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs and currencies.

All the posts are structured in 3 main chapters that can be found in Content, in the upper right-hand corner of the blog.

Market perspective. The technical approach consists of chart patterns and important support/resistance zones. The purpose of this section is to give directions of the price on short and medium term (a few days up to a few months).

Trading setups. The analysis posted here will provide trading scenarios based on different technical tools.

Romanian Market. This is a section dedicated to Romanian stocks and indices.

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Friday, December 23, 2011

S&P 500 Technical Analysis 2011.12.23

Last three days gave a nice bullish scenario on S&P 500 Index, targeting the 1,266 resistance area, representing the early December highs.

The chart is very explicit and needs nothing to add up to now. The most important thing to watch now is a possible bullish failure in the resistance zone. The fail to reach it will prove temporary weakness (at least) of the bulls and can set the market for a correction.

A confirmation in this scenario will appear if the price will break below the T2 trend line.  For those who want to get a second signal, the breach of 1,247 - 1,253 area (strong support) will activate it. 

You can find the original posts here:

Analiza tehnica BET-FI 2011.12.23

Zona de suport 18.630 - 19.030 a functionat foarte bine in aceasta saptamana, iar interventia cumparatorilor a dus la o reversie de 2 zile care are sanse de continuare.

Analiza precedenta  ( ) a subliniat importanta zonei de suport inainte de a fi testate iar pe termen mediu (cateva luni) scenariul ramane pozitiv, cu tinta in zona 21.450 - 22.820. 

Thursday, December 22, 2011

EUR-USD vs. Indices correlation

The history proves that anytime can appear a decorrelation period between the EURUSD cross and the main equity indexes.

EUR-USD direction for the next days

Bearish move still in focus on EUR-USD cross, as the bulls are testing the T1 trend line that I talked about yesterday.

The 1,3040 area is still an important support, reconfirmed yesterday. T1 trend line is acting now as resistance and, along with the stochastic oscillator trying to reach the overbought area, forms a good entry point for the bears.

Main target on the down side still set at 1,2900 area, representing 2011 lows. This is a MAGNET!   

Technical Analysis for S&P 500 Index 2011.12.22

Excellent break-retest-continuation pattern in the S&P price action of the previous days. As I expected, 1,223-1,229 was a strong support that reversed price towards the long side, at least on the short term.

Furthermore, the longer timeframe chart sets the bias for a longer up-swing, with good chances of breaking the early December highs, in the 1,270 area. For the moment this is the first target. 

See here wednesday, dec. 21 post:

Analiza Tehnica Erste Group Bank (EBS) 2011.12.22

Actiunea pretului companiei Erste Group bank din ultimele luni arata un trend descendent marcat de linia T1 care a fost strapunsa in sedinta de ieri.

Minimele acestui an, din 25 noiembrie (in zona 47,55 RON) nu au mai fost testate saptamana trecuta iar acest fapt, impreuna cu evolutia volumelor, dau un prim semnal de alarma pentru o eventuala cumparare.

In cazul unei reversii pe termen mediu, zona tinta este intre nivelele 89,12 si 114,80 RON (tina se va restrange in momentul in care pretul se va apropia de aceasta zona). Pentru confirmare e nevoie de crearea de noi maxime pe termen scurt, prima rezistenta fiind data de nivelul 60,22 RON. 

Analiza Tehnica BRD 2011.12.22

Pretul actiunilor BRD ramane in continuare sub linia de trend T1 insa interventia cumparatorilor la nivelul 10,46RON, peste suportul principal din zona 10,00 RON, ne atrage atentia asupra unui posibil scenariu de crestere, pe care il avem in vedere din analizele trecute

Pentr ca un semnal de cumparare sa se activeze va trebuie sa vedem o strapungere a rezistentei  11,00 RON (care s-a dovedit puternica in ultimele saptamani). Cazul ideal ar fi retestarea nivelulu 11,00 RON ca si suport si cumpararea cat mai aproape de acest nivel.

Analiza Tehnica Fondul Proprietatea (FP) 2011.12.22

Cresterea de ieri a actiunilor Fondului Proprietatea cu 1,8% a reprezentat un pas in plus pentru crearea reversiei mult asteptate de catre investitori.

Minimul dublu format in lunile noiembrie - decembrie la nivelul 0,4150 RON, impreuna cu volumele in crestere din ultimele trei saptamani indica posibilitatea ridicata ca pretul sa ajunga in in zona rezistentei 0,4520 - 0,4600 RON.

Pentru investitorii care au nevoie de inca o confirmare va trebui urmarita o iesire mai clara a pretului din zona actuala de rezistenta, urmata mai apoi de o eventuala retestare ca si suport. Atentie insa pentru ca aceasta retestare ar putea avea loc in timpul unei singure sedinte de tranzactionare. 

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

SP 500 Technical Analysis 2011.12.21

The hourly chart of the S&P index shows a nice rally started from that double bottom I was talking about yesterday ( and now is having a correction as the outcome of the ECB news a few hours ago.

There is a strong support in the $1,220-1,230 area that concerns the 50.00% and the 61.8% retracement levels and also previous lows and highs. An eventual reverse in this area will activate the 1,266 target for the long side.

I am not saying that this is must, all I am saying is that one should pay attention to the price action in this area in order to spot a good trade.

EUR-USD Technical Anlalysis 2011.12.21

The EURUSD cross spiked up above 1.3150 resistance as the ECB lent more than expected to European banks a couple of hours ago.

From the technical point of view, 1.3150 - 1.3230 area is a strong resistance (see dec. 15 analysis: and today’s price action proved it. Bears took over in the main resistance zone, a few minutes after the hot news was released and took the EURUSD in the 1.3100 area.

The lows of the year are at 1.2900 level, as well as the down target on medium term. Therefore, I look for a break below T1 trend line as a second signal of achieving the target of 1.2900 (the first signal was confirmation of 1.3150 - 1.3220 resistance zone).

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2011.12.21

I compressed the last 2 charts of Crude Oil and today's chart in order to follow the action price according to the analysis posted this week.

Bottom line is that the main bullish target in the $97.60 area was achieved yesterday and the $94.30 - $94.80 support zone proved to be the key zone I was watching closely since last week.

The past 2 analysis can be found (explained) here:
Monday, dec. 19:
Tuesday, dec. 20:

Analiza tehnica Fondul Proprietatea (FP) 2011.12.21

Evolutia pretului actiunilor FP din ultima luna au dus la crearea unui minim dublu la nivelul 0,4150 RON care are puterea de a genera o miscare de crestere in perioada urmatoare.

Zona de rezistenta dintre nivelele 0,4230 si 0,4320 RON se mentine valida iar depasirea ei de catre pret va veni ca si confirmare a unei cresteri cu tinta in zona urmatoare de rezistenta: 0,4520 - 0,4600 RON.

Volumele in crestere din ultimele doua saptamani reprezinta un semnal in plus pentru o potential spargere a rezistentei curente. 

Evolutia SIF-urilor fata de BET-FI

Graficul performatelor relative a SIF-urilor fata de indicele BET-FI arata o evolutie mai eficienta a a ctiunilor in ultimele doua luni, datorita subperformarii actiunii FP (nu este inclusa in acest grafic).

Cea mai performanta actiune SIF de la inceputul acestui an este SIF Transilvania (SIF3), urmata de SIF Muntenia (SIF4) si SIF Banat Crisana (SIF1).  

Analiza Tehnica Bursa de Valori Bucuresti (BVB) 2011.12.21

Ultimele doua sedinte au fost caracterizate de volumele extreme date de investitorii care si-au mentinut cererea ridicata pe intreg parcursul sedintelor.

Din punct de vedere tehnic, semnalul de cumparare dat in 17 noiembrie ( ) se mentine valid iar nivelul 30,00 RON reprezinta acum rezistenta temporara pentru pret.

Tinta pe crestere ramane in zona 32,80 - 34,20 RON iar confirmarea va veni odata cu strapungerea rezistentei actuale. 

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

SP 500 Technical Analysis 2011.12.20

SPX Index created a correction channel in the month of December, traveling down to the 50% retracement of the late November - early December rally.

The market personality in the past 3 weeks shows a corrective move as the internal swings are choppy and large. The 19th dec. lows close to the 15th dec. lows where formed due to bears weakness (classic down target was at T2 trend line). This, along with the grat support of 1,200 area, sets my bias towards a reversal.

However, I will expect further confirmation given by T1 break and creating higher highs and higher lows in the future couple of days. I am also monitoring the possible retest of T1 (as a support) after the eventual break above it.

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2011.12.20

Crude Oil is respecting the rising scenario posted in the previous analysis ( ) and the break of the 94.80 resistance level came as a confirmation.

We see higher highs and higher lows from 16th of December, reflecting the bullish strength (at least for the moment).

The future price action can lead to a retest of the support area (94.30-94.80) before the up move should resume. The H1 chart shows the most probable evolution for the next few days.  

Analiza tehnica BET-FI 2011.12.20

Scenariul de crestere pe termen scurt (cateva saptamani) ramane valid iar corectia din ultimele 2 zile nu este o surpriza.

Zona de suport importanta pentru urmatoarele zile ramane intre nivelele 18.630 - 19.030 iar intervantia cumparatorilor in aceasta zona va crea un semnal de cumparare.   

Analiza Tehnica Banca Transilvania (TLV) 2011.12.20

Evolutia pretului actiunilor TLV din ultimele luni indica un trend descendent, dat in principal de slabiciunea cumparatorilor.

Sedinta de ieri a dus la o inchidere sub limita inferioara a zonei de suport (0,8710 RON) indicand astfel posibilitatea crescuta a unei scaderi in continuare.

Monday, December 19, 2011

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2011.12.19

The Crude Oil (WTI) continues to hesitate in establishing a clear direction for the past few days.

Even though we are obviously in a down trend for the month of December, chances are prices to rally in the next coming days. To have a bullish scenario we should wait for confirmation; in my point of view break-retest-continuation are the best so I plotted on the chart the price evolution I am looking for.

The most significant resistance zone for now is between $94.30 and $94.80 levels and the support is in the $92.80 area. The bullish divergence on RSI also contributes to an eventual up-swing and the instability in the middle east is to be watched for eventual news.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis 2011.12.19

The S&P 500 index (futures) created a double bottom formation in the 50% retracement zone of the late November – early December rally.

This pattern could provide the bias for another swing up, above the previous highs, in the 1,270 area ( . On a shorter time frame (today and tomorrow) we can expect a break-retest-continuation price action which will confirm the bullishness of the market.  

EUR-USD vs. S&P 500 analysis

The EUR-USD cross vs. the S&P 500 chart on Friday highlighted the bearish pressure after the hourly fake break on the EUR-USD. My doubts were confirmed ( ) as I tried to capture your attention on the strong correlation.

The S&P index followed soon after, turning the bulls morning resistance in a selling move. I have to refresh your memories here regarding the very strong support level at 1.2900 on EUR-USD (see here why is it so important:  and therefore, we should pay attention to this correlation.

Analiza Tehnica BET-FI 2011.12.19

Indicele BET-FI respecta scenariul classic unei cresteri in 3 valuri (dupa o scadere in 5 valuri intre 31 martie si 04 octombrie) prognozat inca la la inceputul lunii noiembrie ( ).

Momentan ne aflam in cel de-al treilea val care, la randul lui, ar trebui sa se divida in 5 sub-valuri, pana la atingerea zonei tinta dintre nivelele 21.450 si 22.820 RON.

Zona principala de suport este 18.630 - 19.030 in timp ce rezistenta pentru urmatoarele zile este data de nivelul 20.700.

Analiza Tehnica SIF Moldova (SIF2) 2011.12.19

SIF Moldova este cel care a indeplinit cel mai bine scenariul cresterii in 3 valuri, de la inceputul lunii octombrie ( si care si-a atins clar tinta data inca de la inceputul unii noiembrie (1,0700 - 1,1500 RON).

Din aceste motive s-a dat un semnal de vanzare la sfarsitul zilei de joi, conservand astfel un profit de 16,10% fata de cumpararea data in 09 decembrie.

Urmatoarele zile pot crea o scadere temporara iar pe termen mediu evolutia este incerta. Momentan, cresterea inceputa in 29 nov a creat doar 3 subvaluri (din cele 5 clasice) iar din acest punct de vedere exista sanse sa vedem noi maxime, deasupra nivelului de 1,1500 RON.  

Analiza Tehnica OMV Petrom (SNP) 2011.12.19

Evolutia pretului companiei OMV Petrom este intr-o consolidare larga, intre nivelele 0,2690 si 0,3400 RON, pe perioada ultimelor 4 luni.

Ultimele zile de tranzactionare arata prezenta unei oferte ridicate in zona 0,3000 RON iar in cazul unei cresteri, prima confirmare va fi stabilirea zonei curente de rezistenta ca si zona de suport.

Analiza Tehnica Banca Transilvania (TLV) 2011.12.19

Cumparatorii dau dovada de slabiciune in cadrul actiunilor Bancii Transilvania iar evolutia pretului din ultimele luni indica sanse mari de scadere a pretului sub nivelul 0,8700 RON.

Suntem la a treia retestare a suportului 0,8700 RON in ultimele 3luni iar maximele locale au fost din ce in ce mai mici, ceea ce indica oferta ridicata a vanzatorilor.

Bulinele verzi si rosii indica semnalele de cumparare si vanzare date in analize iar acestea se pot verifica in arhiva sectiunii analize din cadrul site-ului. Momentan nu exista semnale, ultimul fiind dat in 13 decembrie (vanzare).

Analiza Tehnica Transgaz Medias (TGN) 2011.12.19

Pretul emitentului Transgaz Medias a scazut ca urmare a ofertei constant mentinute in zona 216,00 RON, care reprezinta prima rezistenta.

Semnalul de cumparare dat  acum doua saptamani ( )  se mentine inca valid iar zona de suport ramane stabilita intre nivelele 203,13 si 208,67 RON.Primul semnal de alarma va fi dat in cazul scaderii pretului sub linia de trend T1.