Market Technical View is a blog that mostly concerns the technical analysis of different financial instruments like indices, commodities, stocks, ETFs and currencies.

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Monday, October 17, 2011

EUR-USD Technical Anlalysis 2011.10.17

This is a pretty clear Elliott Wave count

As expected last week, the Euro climbed against the Dollar, breaking into the resistance zone 1.3850-1.4000. This is a strong resistance area as it represents the 50%-61.8% retracement of the September down move.

The Elliott wave count points out a 5th wave in progression that eventually will be followed by a 3 wave correction (down move in this case). The T1 trend line (connecting 2 and 4 troughs) is the dynamic support of this rally and a break of it will signal the correction.

Wave 3 is extended, composed of 5 clear sub-waves, which sets a possible target of the 5th wave in the 1.3910 zone (wave 5 = wave 1).   

On the shorter time frame (15min), the rally from early October has developed in 5 waves, the 3rd being extended and the 5th being in progress. Analyzing the 5th wave, we can identify four waves already formed and the fifth (wave (v)) still developing.

The most probable outcome is a 3 wave down move (correction) as soon as wave (v) and 5 will be ended. However, the top of the move cannot be exactly identified, 1.3910 level being a good resistance zone. A larger resistance zone is ending at 1.4000 level.   

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