GROUPON - time for a rally

This is a chart I have been watching for over a month now and it finally triggered one of the buying scenarios.

I expected a break above the $5.47 key resistance in the previous analysis ( http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2013/01/groupon-analysis.html ) and this happened yesterday on a relatively high volume.

Add to this fact the support offered by the 50 and 100 day moving average which is a plus for the buyers. Those who are looking to buy can buy the small intraday pullbacks  or can wait for a clear break of the resistance zone and a retest of it as a support.

The first resistance is in the $6.40 but the target is in the $7.90-$9.00.

APPLE technical analysis

Here is an update for the previous analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2013/01/apple-analysis-is-it-time-to-buy.html) and the bulls seem to be more and more optimistic.

Gold technical analysis

APPLE analysis. Is it time to buy?

Here is an interesting chart that shows a nice reversal pattern in times of bearishness.

We all know that Apple (AAPL) has stumbled more than 12% after the earnings report was released Wednesday afternoon and the market seemed dominated by the bears in yesterday's session. 

However, the gap down could as well mean a buying opportunity. In Elliott Wave principle this is an exhausting gap that indicates the end of a swing (bear swing in this case). This scenario was taken into consideration in my previous analysis on Apple ( http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2013/01/apple-shares-price-analysis.html ).

What is more interesting is that we have other examples of the same kind in important companies like HP or Groupon. The main clues are: bearish trend, large gap down and unusual high volume. 

So, the question remains: IS IT TIME TO BUY?

Apple shares price analysis

Apple lost almost 30% from its top ($700 area) in late September 2012. Analyzing the price moves from June 2011, an impulsive 5 wave rise can be observed, with the second wave being a flat correction and the fourth one being a zig-zag, respecting though the alternative characteristic of the Elliott Wave principle.

The most recent price action points to an end of the correction, as a falling wedge is developing, this probably being the final (C) wave from the intermediate (A)-(B)-(C) corrective structure. The out come of this scenario will be the overcome of the $700 some time this year.

The alternate scenario is that a intermediate wave (1) is developing, this being a leading diagonal as the price action fits into a wedge. The first conclusion regarding this scenario is that we will probably assist to a quick zig-zag on the up-side to complete wave (2) and then a sharp sell off that will take the price at least to the $320 area.

However, both of the scenarios are indicating a near term reverse of the intermediate downtrend and the swing traders could use this to buy in weakness is the price will reach the $470-$480 zone.

The volumes are also playing an important role here so the investors should also take a good look at their evolution.

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) analysis

The price action confirmed the late November scenario. The next target stands now at $16.80, followed by $22.00 on the mid term.

Take a look at the left chart (nov.26 analysis: http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2012/11/watch-this-stock-hewlett-packard.html) and see how the price followed my scenario: sharp comeback towards the 75 days average (green line in the $15.00 area) followed by a few weeks of indecision and then an obious bull domination that lead to the break above $15.00 level which is now a strong support.

IMPORTANT: Earnings announcement: 21 Feb. 2013!!!   

Groupon analysis.

This stock has good chances to rise in the short and mid term as more technical signals are converging and the current price is in the $5-$10 range, where the chances for a double-digit percentage move are really high.

Here are a few elements that are pointing towards a higher price:

• high volumes at local lows in November ($2.65-$4.65 area)
• exhausting gap down on over 100M volume day
• price is over the 50 day exponential moving average (green) and the crossover volume was high
• low volumes in the last few weeks, in a narrow  price range between the 50 EXPMA and 100 EXPMA
• good internal wave structure starting from the most notable previous local highs in February 2012 (according to Elliott Wave analysis - not labeled in the chart in order to make it clear) 

Having all this clues noted, the investors should look for the next scenarios:

• immediate break above the current resistance from $5.50 (probably this week), followed by a quick retest of $5.500 as a support and then resuming move up. 
• another week or two in the same price range ($4.50-$5.50) on relatively low volumes (indicating an accumulation) followed by the break above the $5.50 resistance (as a confirmation) and reaching afterwards for the closest target zone. 

The first TARGET ZONE is in the $7.90-$9.00 area.

IMPORTANT: earnings report for Q3 is set on 8th of February!