Blackberry technical analysis - update

This is a great bullish scenario as the stock has been traded in a symmetrical triangle in the past 5 months.

The short and mid term moving averages are holding as supports while the volumes traded have been lighter and lighter as the triangle was forming.

Further more, the consolidation (triangle) was formed above a strong key area ($12.00 - $12.60) after breaking up from record lows created in September of 2012.

The first resistance is at $18.00 but the main target is in the $25.00 area. I expect acceleration when the price will end this triangle (above $15.50).

Next earnings report is due on this Friday so be careful for the large moves in price.

Blackberry technical analysis

Blackberry still has a good growing potential as the volumes picked up this year and the price is stabilized above the 50 and 100 moving averages.

There was a H&S pattern that was formed in the July-October 2012 period which has been identified and posted on the blog on November 13th : http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2012/11/rim-blackberry-price-action-points-to.html .

In the same manner, there has been formed a larger H&S structure from December 2011 until now. The internals of price movement between $12.60 and $17.90 provides bullish signals. The first resistance is in the $17.90 area, while the main target on the mid-term is close to $25.

Zynga - update

This is an updated chart of Zynga, where the price has moved down towards the main support of $3.30.
The volumes traded in the last few week were clearly lower than the volumes on the important breaks of resistances in the last months. This could be a clear sign of accumulation.

The moving averages are also showing a good support in the $3.30 area and the first target is in the $4.45 area.

The news are also very important for Zynga these days: the launch of poker gaming on-line in UK will make some noise in the market.

Zynga - the good news and the technicals are converging

Here is a 4h chart of Zynga. After the good news regarding the on-line gambling in some US states and the good technical perspective, this stock could turn out to be a great investment for the following months.

The buyers overcame the level of $3.25, which seemed to be the most important resistance in the period December 2012 - February 2013.

The volumes are also playing an important role in a stock price and in this case we can obviously see a increase in the last couple of months.

The first target is at $4.50 but the potential is much higher.

Ja Solar is set for a rise

Ja Solar hold its support area ($4.25-$4.50) and now is trading slightly below the $5.00 level.

The volumes are confirming a rising scenario and the most important levels for the previous weeks are $4.25 as a support, $6.00 and $7.60 as resistances/targets.

The investors should bear in mind the date of 25 March when the company will post the earnins announcement.

EURUSD analysis

The previous analysis on EURUSD ( http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2013/02/eur-usd-analysis-reversal-time.html ) pointed out a reversal on the daily chart as 3 main projections were targeting the 1.3700 area.

Here are some important support areas that will hold or even reverse the direction in case the dollar will regain confidence in the next days/weeks.

Apple vs. Samsung analysis

Both of the tech shares rose sharply since early 2009, APPLE reaching above 400% while SAMSUNG is at 290%.

In the majority of the time APPLE over-performed SAMSUNG but in the last five months the decline in the APPLE shares reversed the ratio.

I wonder if this is a sign of reverse in the investor's sentiment regarding the two largest tech companies in the world. If APPLE will fail to amaze its fans in 2013, than buying  SAMSUNG shares could be the perfect investment for those who want to keep their money in this sector.

Apple, Groupon update

It seems like the investor's sentiment has reversed yesterday, at least for the short term.

The EUR weakness and the news about Cyprus, Spain and Italy could reverse the markets.

Therefore, I am setting SL levels for:

•  AAPL at $437.00 ( http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2013/01/apple-technical-analysis.html )
• GRPN at $5.13 ( http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2013/02/groupon-time-for-rally.html )

EUR-USD analysis. Reversal time.

The daily chart of the EUR/USD cross reveals a bunch of clues for a mid-term reversal.

The strength of the Euro from late July until now has evolved in 3 waves (ABC structure) and it almost reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the  May 2011 - July 2012 swing down.

Moreover, there are 3 AB=CD scenarios on different time scales (blue, red and green lines on the chart) that are projecting the target in the same area 1.3655 - 1.3770.

In Friday's session the price formed a spinning top candle and today it seems that the bears are dominating. In case the EURUSD cross will close the day somewhere below  1.3600 level, than a bearish engulfing pattern will be created and we should look for a reversal.

GROUPON - time for a rally

This is a chart I have been watching for over a month now and it finally triggered one of the buying scenarios.

I expected a break above the $5.47 key resistance in the previous analysis ( http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2013/01/groupon-analysis.html ) and this happened yesterday on a relatively high volume.

Add to this fact the support offered by the 50 and 100 day moving average which is a plus for the buyers. Those who are looking to buy can buy the small intraday pullbacks  or can wait for a clear break of the resistance zone and a retest of it as a support.

The first resistance is in the $6.40 but the target is in the $7.90-$9.00.

APPLE technical analysis

Here is an update for the previous analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2013/01/apple-analysis-is-it-time-to-buy.html) and the bulls seem to be more and more optimistic.

Gold technical analysis

APPLE analysis. Is it time to buy?

Here is an interesting chart that shows a nice reversal pattern in times of bearishness.

We all know that Apple (AAPL) has stumbled more than 12% after the earnings report was released Wednesday afternoon and the market seemed dominated by the bears in yesterday's session. 

However, the gap down could as well mean a buying opportunity. In Elliott Wave principle this is an exhausting gap that indicates the end of a swing (bear swing in this case). This scenario was taken into consideration in my previous analysis on Apple ( http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2013/01/apple-shares-price-analysis.html ).

What is more interesting is that we have other examples of the same kind in important companies like HP or Groupon. The main clues are: bearish trend, large gap down and unusual high volume. 

So, the question remains: IS IT TIME TO BUY?

Apple shares price analysis

Apple lost almost 30% from its top ($700 area) in late September 2012. Analyzing the price moves from June 2011, an impulsive 5 wave rise can be observed, with the second wave being a flat correction and the fourth one being a zig-zag, respecting though the alternative characteristic of the Elliott Wave principle.

The most recent price action points to an end of the correction, as a falling wedge is developing, this probably being the final (C) wave from the intermediate (A)-(B)-(C) corrective structure. The out come of this scenario will be the overcome of the $700 some time this year.

The alternate scenario is that a intermediate wave (1) is developing, this being a leading diagonal as the price action fits into a wedge. The first conclusion regarding this scenario is that we will probably assist to a quick zig-zag on the up-side to complete wave (2) and then a sharp sell off that will take the price at least to the $320 area.

However, both of the scenarios are indicating a near term reverse of the intermediate downtrend and the swing traders could use this to buy in weakness is the price will reach the $470-$480 zone.

The volumes are also playing an important role here so the investors should also take a good look at their evolution.

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) analysis

The price action confirmed the late November scenario. The next target stands now at $16.80, followed by $22.00 on the mid term.

Take a look at the left chart (nov.26 analysis: http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.ro/2012/11/watch-this-stock-hewlett-packard.html) and see how the price followed my scenario: sharp comeback towards the 75 days average (green line in the $15.00 area) followed by a few weeks of indecision and then an obious bull domination that lead to the break above $15.00 level which is now a strong support.

IMPORTANT: Earnings announcement: 21 Feb. 2013!!!   

Groupon analysis.

This stock has good chances to rise in the short and mid term as more technical signals are converging and the current price is in the $5-$10 range, where the chances for a double-digit percentage move are really high.

Here are a few elements that are pointing towards a higher price:

• high volumes at local lows in November ($2.65-$4.65 area)
• exhausting gap down on over 100M volume day
• price is over the 50 day exponential moving average (green) and the crossover volume was high
• low volumes in the last few weeks, in a narrow  price range between the 50 EXPMA and 100 EXPMA
• good internal wave structure starting from the most notable previous local highs in February 2012 (according to Elliott Wave analysis - not labeled in the chart in order to make it clear) 

Having all this clues noted, the investors should look for the next scenarios:

• immediate break above the current resistance from $5.50 (probably this week), followed by a quick retest of $5.500 as a support and then resuming move up. 
• another week or two in the same price range ($4.50-$5.50) on relatively low volumes (indicating an accumulation) followed by the break above the $5.50 resistance (as a confirmation) and reaching afterwards for the closest target zone. 

The first TARGET ZONE is in the $7.90-$9.00 area.

IMPORTANT: earnings report for Q3 is set on 8th of February!

First Solar: Before & After

I posted a chart in Nov.29 when FSLR was at $27.21, just breaking from a ascending triangle.
The volumes were playing out well and now, the stock is trading at $33.03.
As the volumes are slightly declining, the investors should pay attention to resistance levels.

Netflix analysis

Netflix buyers, be careful! This chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern close to the resistance zone of $100. This could lead to a selling pressure in the next days or even weeks.

Utilities are proven to be one of the best choise for December...again!

Along Utilities, there is also the Consumer Discretionary and the Telecomunications sectors that are the most attractive for this December. Utilities have another +1.77% to go until the year end in order to reach the average of the last 3 years.

DJIA analysis

Very strong resistance for DJIA at 13.300. Technically, this should be a short opportunity BUT the main thing that moves the market theese days will be the FISCAL CLIFF.