Is this rally in its final stage?
As we thought on Friday (though without sufficient evidence at that moment), the 10,600 area support proved to be strong enough to reverse the price course for a few days.
On the futures market the price traveled beyond the 61,2% Fibonacci retracement but the key resistance level is at 11,267 (a former important low). If buyers fail to keep their bid steady we will be clearly heading for a bearish reversal, targeting the previous lows of 23rd September in the 10,550 area. A closer support is set in the 10,850 area.
The Elliott wave count positions the market in the second wave (wave 2) of a 5 wave downward structure. If this count is correct, this up move will not cross over the 11,550 level and, furthermore, the previous lows (10,550) should be breached.
CONCLUSION: keep an eye on the price action around the 11,267 level!
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