S&P 500 Technical Analysis 2011.11.18

S&P index closed yesterday in the main support area, around the 1,220 area, therefore following the preferred scenario posted on nov. 1^st analysis: http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2011/11/s-500-technical-analysis-20111101.html .

The consolidation of the past three weeks (started on the 26^th of oct.), above the 1,220 level, looks like a continuation pattern now but the internal structure leads to a more bearish scenario.

Bottom line is that, even if wave 2 (corrective blue) is not finished yet the main move will be down, set to complete wave 3 (blue) that can easily travel well beyond early October lows, in the 1,090 area.   

Analiza Tehnica Bursa de Valori Bucuresti (BVB) 2011.11.17

Ultima analiza a emitentului BVB (http://www.goldring.ro/analiza-tehnica-bursa-de-valori-bucuresti-(bvb)-2011.11.01.html ) a evidentiat rolul important al rezistentei 28,00 RON in evolutia pretului.

Exista 3 indicii (din punct de vedere tehnic) care arata o crestere pe termen scurt (cateva saptamani) sau chiar mediu (cateva luni):

-          Suport puternic in zona 24,70 RON dat de minimele absolute

-          Scaderea ampla de la inceputul lunii august (pe volume mari) urmata de o alta scadere care nu a dus la crearea de noi minime

-          Strapungerea rezistentei 28,00 RON, dup ace volumele arata o sustinere a cumparatorilor in ultimele saptamani.

In cazul in care se va produce o reversie prima confirmare va fi retestarea nivelului 28,00 RON ca si suport iar tinta este data de zona 32,80-34,20 RON.

Analiza Tehnica Banca Transilvania (TLV) 2011.11.17

Pretul actiunilor Bancii Transilvania a scazut in ultimele zile, impreuna cu toate actiunile emitentilor din sectorul bancar. Analiza din 14 noiembrie descrie scenariul urmarit (http://www.goldring.ro/analiza-tehnica-banca-transilvania-(tlv)-2011.11.14.html ).

Suportul 0,9400 RON poate sta la baza reluarii cresterii iar volumele in scadere din ultima perioada (de scadere – 2-3 saptamani) indica miscarea ascendenta in care ne aflam (din 26 septembrie).

Tinta clasica ramane in zona 1,1100-1,1430 RON cu rezistenta intermediara in zona 0,9900-1,0000 RON.

DAX sinking

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmOTpIVxji8
Mayday mayday we are sinking!!!!!!!!!!!
What are you sinking about ?

Looks like the resistance was to much.The DAX dropped like a stone along with the euro.It is aproaching the day`s low on very high volatility.Very hard times to trade.

DAX touching resistance

The DAX cfd is touching resistance as i`m writing this post.If it moves above resistance the next target is the 6128 high.This could be a nice entry point with decent R/R.More later....

Analiza Tehnica SIF Banat Crisana (SIF1) 2011.11.16

Pretul actiunilor SIF1 a intrat in zona de rezistenta 0,9100-1,0300 delimitata de nivelele de retragere 38,2% si 61,8% raportate la scaderea aprilie-octombrie 2011.

Din acest punct de vedere putem asista la o corectie (scadere sau lateralizare) insa trendul se mentine crescator. Suportul principal este dat de nivelul 0,9080 RON iar rezistenta este la nivelul 1,0300 RON. 

Analiza Tehnica SIF Moldova (SIF2) 2011.11.16

SIF2 are sanse reale de continuare a cresterii dat fiind faptul ca ieri a fost atins doar primul target (0,9800 RON) (vezi analiza http://www.goldring.ro/analiza-tehnica-sif-moldova-(sif2)-2011.11.02.html ) iar cel de-al doilea target ramane in zona 1,0700-1,1500 RON.

Volumele confirma momentul de crestere iar scenariul de evolutie in 3 valuri ne poate duce la o corectie (sau consolidare) in urmatoarele zile. ATENTIE: acesta este un scenariu probabil iar zona tinta principal (tinta 2) poate fi atinsa fara producerea corectiei. 

Analiza tehnica SIF Transilvania (SIF3) 2011.11.16

Evolutia actiunilor SIF3 a adus cel mai bun randament pentru investitori in ultima perioada, iar in sedinta de ieri cresterea de 10,0% a atins nivelul maximelor din luna aprilie 2011 (zona 0,6000 RON).

Zona de suport principala este data de nivelele 0,4800-0,5050 RON iar evolutia volumelor din ultimele saptamani confirma cresterea actuala. 

Analiza Tehnica SIF Muntenia (SIF4) 2011.11.16

Semnalul de cumparare dat pentru actiunile SIF4 in 7 noiembrie (http://www.goldring.ro/analiza-tehnica-sif-muntenia-(sif4)-2011.11.07.html ) are un randament de 17,6% (raportat la inchiderea de ieri).

In plus, zona tinta propusa in aceeasi analiza a fost atinsa in timpul sedintei de ieri (0,6300 RON). In continuare putem asista la o corectie (sau consolidare mai larga) insa pentru cei care au cumparat pe baza analizei este recomandata vanzarea sau reducerea.

Tinta clasica a fost atinsa insa cresterea poate continua pe termen mediu (cateva luni). Totusi, pentru acest scenario trebuie sa avem indicia suplimentare in zilele (sau saptamanile urmatoare). 

Analiza Tehnica SIF Oltenia (SIF5) 2011.11.16

Pretul actiunilor SIF Oltenia a depasit prima zona de rezistenta mentionata in ultimele saptamani (vezi analiza precedenta: http://www.goldring.ro/analiza-tehnica-sif-oltenia-(sif5)-2011.11.15.html  ) iar maximul din timpul zilei (1,2100 RON) a ajuns in apropierea zonei tinta 1,2400-1,3000 RON.

In continuare, este foarte greu de anticipat sentimentul de masa al investiorilor dupa stirile de ieri iar din acest punct de vedere, investitorii care au cumparat la inceputul lunii isi pot marca profiturile.

Suportul pe ziua de azi este la nivelul 1,0700 RON iar pentru urmatoarele zile, zona de suport este data de zona 0,9680-0,1000 RON. Zona tinta mentionata acum cateva saptamani ramane valida (1,2400-1,3000 RON), cu mentiunea ca o perioada de corectie poate urma.Evolutia volumelor din ultimele 6 saptamani confirma o crestere.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Technical Analysis 2011.11.16

Dow Jones Industrial Average created a strong support in the 11,700 area, at the 50% retracement level and the highs of early September.

The end of wave 2 could be translated toward newer highs as the corrective pattern could develop in a complex manner (two linked corrections). If this will be the case, I expect a lower degree slope of the probable next swing up.

However, if the current support area will be broken, we will look for further bearish action, aiming for the early October lows, in the 10,500 area. 

UUP weekly

The UUP is facing some stiff resistance.If this resistance is to break some serious action is expected in the markets.I will watch this closely as resistance is very close.

DOW atempting a breakout

Dow spot performs as expected, trying to make a breakout.Bonds going down, dow going up....easy!!!!!!!
NOT SO  FAST!!!!!
We need a clean breakout on equities and a clean breakdown on bonds to be sure.
A little more patience and we should get a very nice trade.

Analiza Tehnica Transgaz Medias (TGN) 2011.11.14

Conform analizei de la inceputul lunii noiembrie (http://www.goldring.ro/analiza-tehnica-transgaz-medias-(tgn)-2011.11.03.html ) pretul actiunilor Transgaz Medias oscileaza deasupra suportului 208,66 RON iar in cazul in care asta se va mentine in continuare stabil, va acumula putere de crestere pe termen scurt si mediu.

Linia de trend T1 se mentine in continuare un suport puternic iar in cazul in care pretul va ajunge la confluenta dintre T1 si zona de suport (vezi grafic) se va semnala o oportunitate de cumparare. Pentru investitorii cu apetit de risc mai ridicat exista chiar si in prezent o oportunitate de cumparare, tinta tiind data in zona 246,65 Ron , cu rezistenta intermediara in zona 229,33 RON.  

DAX cfd close to support.....again.....

The DAX index CFD is aproaching support again.Very tough market to trade lately.If this support breaks i am looking towards the 5000 area.I hope there will be no fakeout this time.

DAX Technical Analysis 2011.11.15

More and more signs of a break-down...

The technical perspective of DAX Index keeps the short side appearance as the T1 trend line was breached in the past couple of sessions.

The Elliott Wave count of the past analysis (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2011/11/dax-technical-analysis-20111109.html ) slightly modified as I noticed that wave [ii] turned into a running flat (see arguments above the second chart). The analysis of the price action between the end of wave [i] and the presumable end of wave [ii] reveals a correction of the most significant trend (down trend) even if there are lower lows and lower highs.

The target of the eventual down move, representing wave [iii], should be in the 5,000 area.

The 30 min chart shows a detailed look of the current consolidation area representing wave [ii]. The internal structure of a flat correction is 3-3-5, which means that each of the three waves composing wave [ii] is formed of 3,3 and respectively 5 sub-waves (as shown in the chart below).  

TLT and IEF sideways

  The triangle that we see now on multiple charts coresponds to sideways action in bonds lately.Both TLT and IEF show the same caracteristics.To get a breakout on stocks we need to get a breakdown in bonds.Will the bonds solve the pattern for stocks, or the stocks will solve the pattern for bonds ?
  If history truly repeats itself then we should get a large move in the coming days/weeks....

SPY setup

SPY is also close to solving the pattern.I would consider a valid breakout above 127 and a valid breakdown under 123.I admit it is a large distance between 127 and 123, at least for day traders.But in this case i think waiting for the breakout to validate will payoff .

IWM triangle close to apex

The Russell ETF behaves like expected.The Triangle pattern is slowly reaching it`s apex.We should get a large move soon.......we just need to stick around and watch for a breakout.

Triangles Everywhere.

      This pattern seems to show up in a lot of charts.The symmetrical triangle, which can also be be reffered to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern.Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout.Hopefully we will get a breakout as soon as possible , until then patience is the word i would use.

Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Analysis 2011.11.14

Crude Oil reached target zone!

Finally, the patience paid off in my crude oil (WTI) scenario posted on November 2^nd (http://markettechnicalview.blogspot.com/2011/11/crude-oil-wti-technical-analysis.html ) where the main target was set in the $99.90 area.

The T1 trend line acted as a support the whole way up and it still does as long as the price will stay above it. Meantime, the T3 trend line kept the price in a narrow channel, acting as a resistance and the intersection with the horizontal resistance at $99.90 formed an important reversal point (possible, not really necessary).

The trend can still remain bullish but the current high stands for a selling or at least for reducing exposure. The first support is set by the T1 trend line and it is followed by the $94.00 area (previous highs) in case of a break down.